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Published: 17 July 2026,06:49
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*US Dollar Index extends losses after a series of weaker-than-expected U.S. data
*Producer Price Index records its sharpest decline in 14 months
*Softer CPI, PPI, and jobs data reduce expectations for a near-term Fed rate hike
*Renewed U.S.–Iran tensions keep broader market uncertainty elevated
The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, continued to extend its losses after a series of downbeat U.S. economic data reinforced expectations that inflation pressures are easing.
The latest U.S. Producer Price Index unexpectedly fell sharply in June, recording its biggest decline in 14 months. The report also showed a significant downward revision to May’s PPI reading, adding further evidence that inflationary pressure in the U.S. was easing even before the latest escalation in the Middle East.
The softer PPI data followed Tuesday’s larger-than-expected decline in the monthly Consumer Price Index, while June’s slower job growth also pointed to cooling economic momentum. Together, the data reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at this month’s meeting.
As Fed hike expectations eased, U.S. Treasury yields came under pressure, weighing further on the dollar. A weaker inflation outlook reduces the need for additional monetary tightening, making the greenback less attractive compared with periods of higher yield support.
However, the latest economic data has been partly overshadowed by renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran following last week’s collapse of a fragile ceasefire. The return of geopolitical tensions has increased uncertainty across global markets, especially as investors assess the potential impact on oil prices, inflation expectations, and broader risk sentiment.
Overall, the dollar remains under pressure from softer U.S. data and weaker Fed hike expectations, but renewed Middle East tensions could limit downside if safe-haven demand returns or energy prices rebound sharply.
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil, H4:
Crude oil price action remains constructive after the strong rebound from the 66.70 support, but bullish momentum is beginning to fade as WTI consolidates just above the 76.20 breakout level.
Price is currently holding around 79.00, remaining above the former resistance at 76.20, which has now turned into immediate support. The recent rally has established a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, keeping the broader recovery intact. However, the latest candles show a loss of upside momentum as buyers struggle to extend gains beyond the 79.00–80.00 region. As long as the price stays above 76.20, the near-term bias remains cautiously bullish, with a break above the recent swing high potentially opening the way toward 86.90. On the downside, a decisive break below 76.20 would likely trigger a deeper pullback toward 66.70, where stronger buying interest may re-emerge.
Momentum indicators suggest the uptrend is cooling. The RSI has retreated to around 55, slipping below its moving average after recently reaching overbought territory, indicating bullish momentum is easing but has not yet turned bearish. Meanwhile, the MACD has completed a bearish crossover, with the histogram remaining in negative territory, reflecting weakening upside momentum and increasing risk of a short-term corrective move before the broader uptrend can resume.
Resistance Levels: 86.90, 95.80
Support Levels: 76.20, 66.70
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