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Key Takeaways:
*US crude inventories surged by 17.4 million barrels, the largest weekly increase since January 2023.
*OPEC and the IEA both lowered their 2026 oil-demand outlooks, increasing concerns over weaker consumption.
*Oil remains caught between bearish demand fundamentals and persistent geopolitical supply risks.
Crude oil prices remained relatively steady near $81 per barrel during early Friday trading after falling more than 2% in the previous session. Investors continue to balance weakening demand signals against persistent supply risks in the Middle East.
The bearish pressure comes primarily from US inventories. EIA data showed commercial crude stockpiles jumping by 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million barrels, driven by weaker exports and higher imports. The unusually large build raised concerns over near-term demand conditions, although some analysts cautioned that the weekly increase may partly reflect temporary trade-flow distortions.
The global demand outlook has also weakened. OPEC lowered its forecast for 2026 demand growth to 580,000 barrels per day, while the IEA expects global oil consumption to contract amid elevated prices and disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict.
However, geopolitical risks continue to limit crude oil’s downside. The US and Iran remain locked in a dispute over the Strait of Hormuz, while vessel traffic through the region continues to face significant disruption. Recent Houthi attacks around the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab have added another layer of uncertainty for global energy shipping.
For now, crude oil remains caught between rising inventories and weaker demand expectations on the bearish side, and persistent Middle East supply-disruption risks on the bullish side. Developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and US–Iran negotiations are likely to remain the key catalysts for the next major move.
Technical Analysis

Crude Oil, H4:
Crude oil prices are trading lower, currently hovering near the 80.80 support level, which remains a key downside pivot.
Momentum indicators are turning cautious. The MACD is showing weakening bullish momentum, while the RSI at 48 is beginning to turn lower, suggesting that downside pressure may build if a confirmed breakdown occurs.
A break below 80.80 could open the path toward the next support level at 74.95, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
However, if bearish momentum fails to persist, crude oil may rebound and retest the 86.95 resistance level, followed by 93.45 if recovery momentum strengthens.
Resistance Levels: 86.95, 93.45
Support Levels: 80.80, 74.95
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