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Published: 14 August 2026,07:09
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*Softer CPI and PPI data reduced expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate hike to around 35%.
*The Dollar Index remains near the 100 level, with limited momentum despite the weaker inflation data.
*Gold retreated after reaching a two-month high as investors took profits following the recent strong rally.
The US Dollar Index remained relatively subdued after retracing from resistance around 100.05, as softer-than-expected US producer inflation failed to generate a major market reaction.
July’s Producer Price Index was unchanged month-on-month, compared with expectations for a 0.2% increase, while annual PPI slowed to 4.7%. Combined with the earlier moderation in CPI, the latest data suggest that recent energy-price pressures have not translated into a significant renewed inflation surge.
The softer inflation backdrop further reduced expectations of Federal Reserve tightening. Fed funds futures now indicate only around a 35% probability of a September rate hike, down from roughly 55% a week earlier. Treasury yields also declined, keeping the broader outlook for the dollar relatively cautious despite some technical bargain buying near support.
Gold, however, did not fully benefit from the weaker dollar and lower yields. Prices retreated after recently reaching a two-month high, with profit-taking emerging following a strong rally earlier in August. Bullion also slipped below the $4,400 per troy ounce area as traders reduced positions after a busy week of US economic releases.
Nevertheless, the broader fundamental backdrop for gold remains relatively supportive. Softer inflation, weak recent employment data and reduced Fed tightening expectations lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Investors will now focus on upcoming labour-market reports and the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 27–29 for further guidance on the Fed’s policy outlook.
Technical Analysis
GOLD, H4:
Gold prices are trading lower after breaking below both the upward trendline and the key 4,365.00 support level, confirming a bearish shift in market structure.
Momentum indicators continue to support the downside bias, with the MACD showing increasing bearish momentum and the RSI at 43 staying below the midline, suggesting that selling pressure may persist.
This double breakdown increases the likelihood of further losses, with gold potentially extending its decline toward the next support level at 4,285.00.
However, if bearish momentum begins to fade, gold may stage a technical rebound and retest the 4,365.00 level, which now acts as immediate resistance.
Resistance Levels: 4485.00, 4645.00
Support Levels: 4365.00, 4285.00
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