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Published: 17 July 2026,06:54
Chart The Market
*Dollar Index rebounds slightly after stronger-than-expected jobless claims data
*Initial jobless claims fell to 208K, reinforcing labor market resilience
*Softer CPI and PPI data still limit broader USD upside
*Gold extends losses as rising oil prices revive global tightening concerns
The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rebounded slightly after better-than-expected U.S. economic data improved sentiment toward the U.S. economy. The latest labor market data provided short-term support for the dollar, although broader upside remains limited by softer inflation readings.
According to the Department of Labor, initial jobless claims fell to 208K last week, below market expectations of 217K. The data reinforced confidence that the U.S. labor market remains resilient, even as recent CPI and PPI reports suggest inflationary pressure may be easing.
However, the broader dollar trend remains capped below key resistance levels. Earlier weaker-than-expected U.S. CPI and PPI data continue to weigh on Fed rate-hike expectations, making investors cautious about extending bullish dollar positions aggressively.
This mixed macro backdrop has also shaped gold’s movement. Gold extended losses and was on track for its biggest weekly decline since early June, as renewed Middle East hostilities pushed oil prices higher and revived concerns over global inflation pressure.
Rising energy prices have increased the risk that inflation could remain sticky, prompting a growing number of Fed officials to warn that further tightening may still be needed. This has created stronger headwinds for non-yielding bullion, as higher interest rate expectations increase the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Beyond the Federal Reserve, markets are also pricing in a more hawkish outlook from other major central banks. Traders are now fully pricing a quarter-point Bank of England rate hike by September, followed by another increase before year-end. Expectations for the European Central Bank have also shifted more hawkishly, with markets pricing a 25-basis-point hike in September and another move before year-end.
Overall, the dollar remains supported in the short term by resilient labor data, but its upside is still limited by softer inflation reports. Gold, meanwhile, remains under pressure as rising oil prices revive global tightening concerns and reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets.
Technical Analysis
GOLD, H4:
Gold prices are currently testing the strong 3,970.00 support level, which acts as a key downside pivot.
Market attention remains focused on a potential breakdown below this zone. A confirmed break below 3,970.00 could extend losses toward the next support level at 3,900.00, reinforcing the bearish structure.
However, momentum indicators suggest that selling pressure may be easing. The MACD is showing diminishing bearish momentum, while the RSI at 36 is rebounding sharply from oversold territory, indicating the possibility of a short-term technical rebound.
If bearish momentum continues to fade, gold may recover and retest the 4,055.00 resistance level, followed by 4,125.00 if recovery momentum strengthens.
Resistance Levels: 4055.00, 4125.00
Support Levels: 3970.00, 3900.00
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