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Published: 2 July 2026,05:58
Daily Market Analysis New
*Crude oil dropped to its lowest level since the Middle East conflict escalated after the U.S.-Iran peace deal eased supply disruption concerns and secured shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
*Markets are now focused on today’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. A stronger-than-expected jobs reading could reinforce higher-for-longer Fed expectations, weighing on oil demand and extending crude’s decline.
*WTI is likely to stay under pressure as easing geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties reduce demand expectations. Traders should watch the NFP release for the next directional move.
Crude oil prices extended their decline in the latest session, with WTI Crude dipping to fresh lows below the $68.00 mark for the first time since the outbreak of heightened Middle East geopolitical tensions. This move follows the U.S. and Iran reaching a peace deal that secures free passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, easing immediate supply disruption fears and removing a key risk premium from the market.
The agreement has shifted focus from geopolitical supply risks toward demand dynamics and broader macroeconomic conditions. With reduced uncertainty around energy flows, the market has priced out much of the earlier premium, leading to a meaningful correction in oil benchmarks.
Attention now turns to today’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. A strong reading could signal a resilient labor market, potentially reinforcing expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Higher interest rates would increase borrowing costs and weigh on economic activity, thereby pressuring oil demand and contributing to further downside in crude prices.
The near-term outlook for crude oil remains cautious. Support for WTI sits around recent lows, but sustained selling could emerge if NFP data exceeds expectations or if global growth concerns intensify. Upside would require signs of renewed supply risks or softer U.S. data that support rate cut hopes. Traders should monitor energy inventory reports and OPEC+ developments for additional direction.
Technical Analysis
West Texas Intermediate remains firmly entrenched in a broad downtrend, with bearish momentum accelerating in recent sessions. After spending nearly a week consolidating around the key psychological support level at $70.00, the market failed to generate a meaningful technical rebound, highlighting the continued dominance of sellers.
The inability to recover following a prolonged consolidation phase is a notable bearish signal. Instead of attracting fresh buying interest, WTI broke lower, indicating that market participants remain pessimistic about the near-term outlook and that selling pressure continues to outweigh demand.
The latest decline has pushed crude prices below the $68.00 mark, confirming a continuation of the prevailing downtrend. This breakdown reinforces the series of lower highs and lower lows that has characterized WTI’s price action, suggesting that bearish momentum remains firmly intact.
From a technical perspective, the failure to defend the $70.00 psychological level has turned this area into an important resistance zone. Unless WTI can reclaim this level and establish sustained buying momentum, the broader bearish outlook is expected to remain unchanged.
The decisive move below $68.00 further strengthens the negative bias and suggests that sellers continue to dominate the market. If the current momentum persists, WTI could remain vulnerable to additional downside pressure and extend its losses in the coming sessions.
Resistance Levels: 69.90, 77.50
Support Levels: 62.20, 55.80
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