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Published: 4 September 2026,06:28
Daily Market Analysis New
*Waller’s more dovish stance reduced September rate-hike expectations toward 50%, weighing on the dollar and Treasury yields.
*Gold has recovered toward $4,470–$4,500/oz, supported by lower yields, dollar weakness and renewed safe-haven demand.
*Markets expect around 56k jobs added with unemployment near 4.1%; a weak report could reinforce rate-hold expectations, while stronger data could revive USD and yield upside.
Market Summary:
The US dollar remains under pressure while gold stages a strong rebound, as markets reassess the Federal Reserve’s policy path ahead of the August nonfarm payrolls report. The Dollar Index is hovering around 99.0 and is heading for a weekly decline of roughly 0.7%, while spot gold has recovered toward $4,470–$4,500/oz after falling below $4,300 earlier in the week. The key catalyst has been a sharp shift in Fed expectations following Governor Christopher Waller’s comments that he would support keeping rates unchanged at the September 15–16 meeting if upcoming inflation data confirms continued moderation in price pressures. His remarks reduced the implied probability of a September rate hike to around 50%, from roughly 60–65% earlier in the week, sending Treasury yields lower and weighing on the dollar while reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
The greenback is also facing pressure from the sharp appreciation of the Japanese yen, which has gained around 2.6–2.7% this week and reached its strongest level in roughly a month. Hawkish comments from BOJ policymaker Hajime Takata have strengthened expectations that the Bank of Japan could raise rates this month and potentially accelerate tightening thereafter, while the rapid yen appreciation has kept the possibility of Japanese intervention in focus. The narrowing US-Japan rate differential has accelerated the decline in USD/JPY and contributed to broader dollar weakness. Meanwhile, speculative positioning has become less supportive of the greenback, with CFTC data showing that dollar long positions have fallen substantially from late-July levels. Together, softer Fed expectations, lower US yields and stronger yen demand have created a more challenging near-term backdrop for the dollar, which in turn has provided additional support for gold.
However, the US labour market and inflation outlook remain critical to the next move in both assets. The August NFP report is expected to show around 55–56k jobs added, with unemployment holding near 4.1%, while next week’s CPI and PPI releases will provide further clues on whether disinflation is progressing sufficiently for the Fed to remain on hold. A weaker payrolls reading, particularly alongside a rise in unemployment, would reinforce expectations for a September hold, potentially pushing Treasury yields and the dollar lower while allowing gold to extend its recovery. Conversely, a stronger labour-market report could revive rate-hike expectations, lift yields and trigger a renewed dollar rebound, creating downward pressure on gold. The latest US data has offered a mixed picture: weekly jobless claims rose only marginally to 206k, suggesting relatively stable labour-market conditions, while the ISM Services PMI strengthened to 55.4 and its Prices Paid component climbed to 72.6, highlighting persistent inflationary pressure that could complicate the Fed’s easing outlook.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices remain important cross-currents. Brent crude remains above $95 a barrel amid continuing US-Iran hostilities and risks surrounding Middle Eastern energy supplies, keeping inflation expectations elevated and potentially limiting the extent to which markets can price out further Fed tightening. This creates a two-sided impact on gold: geopolitical uncertainty supports safe-haven demand, but sustained oil-driven inflation could push Treasury yields higher and reduce the appeal of non-interest-bearing bullion. Despite this headwind, gold continues to benefit from softer yields, dollar weakness and ongoing central-bank demand. The Dutch central bank’s recent transfer of 86 tonnes of gold reserves from New York and Ottawa to London also highlights the broader trend of reserve diversification amid geopolitical uncertainty. Overall, the near-term outlook remains bearish for the dollar and constructive for gold, although both markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to the US employment report and next week’s inflation data. A decisive break above gold’s $4,520–$4,530 resistance zone could reopen the path toward $4,700, while stronger US data could trigger another yield- and dollar-driven correction.
GOLD, H4:
Gold has turned short-term bullish after rebounding strongly from the 4,310.00 support and reclaiming the 4,375 level. Price has now recovered toward 4,480, approaching the key 4,520 resistance. A sustained break above 4,520 would strengthen the bullish outlook and potentially open the way toward 4,645, followed by 4,695. On the downside, 4,375 is now the immediate support, while a break below 4,310 would weaken the recovery and expose 4,220 as the next major support.
Momentum indicators also favour the bulls. RSI has recovered to 57, moving above its signal average at 45 and back above the neutral 50 level, indicating improving buying momentum without yet reaching overbought territory. Meanwhile, MACD has turned bullish, with the MACD line moving above the signal line, while the histogram has expanded into positive territory, suggesting that upside momentum is strengthening. Overall, the bias is bullish above 4,375, although 4,520 remains the key resistance that needs to be cleared to confirm further upside.
Resistance Levels: 4485.00, 4520.00
Support Levels: 4375.00, 4310.00
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