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Published: 1 October 2026,09:30
Daily Market Analysis New
*Oil fell as Gulf crude exports recovered. Saudi Arabia resumed loadings at Yanbu, adding to signs of improving supply.
*US crude inventories rose unexpectedly, reinforcing near-term downward pressure on prices.
*Fuel supplies remain tight: gasoline and distillate inventories fell even as crude stocks increased.
Oil began October under pressure as recovering Middle Eastern crude exports eased fears of an immediate supply shortage. Saudi Arabia has resumed tanker loadings at its Red Sea port of Yanbu following the restart of its East-West Pipeline. Analysts cited by the Wall Street Journal said Persian Gulf shipments had risen strongly, with Kpler estimating flows of 12.5 million barrels a day in the week ending September 27, about 1 million barrels a day below its pre-conflict baseline. The more active December Brent contract settled at about $98.03 a barrel on Wednesday, before Reuters reported Brent futures near $96.64 during Thursday’s Asian session.
US inventory data strengthened the case for a near-term pullback in crude. The Energy Information Administration reported an unexpected 0.9-million-barrel rise in commercial crude stocks to 427.3 million barrels for the week ending September 25, as refinery processing slowed. Yet the same report showed gasoline inventories falling 1.7 million barrels and distillate inventories falling 2.3 million. Recovering crude shipments therefore do not mean the fuel market has fully normalized; tighter refined-product supplies can keep energy costs and inflation concerns elevated.
Geopolitics remains the main counterweight to improving supply. Iran said it had received a US response to its latest proposal to end the conflict, but the terms and prospects for an agreement remained unclear. Crude shipments may be recovering, yet their reliability still depends on the security of tankers, pipelines and routes around the Strait of Hormuz. That uncertainty helps explain why oil can fall on stronger export data while retaining a substantial geopolitical risk premium.
In the next few sessions, the direction of oil will depend on whether higher Gulf exports prove sustainable, whether US–Iran diplomacy makes tangible progress, and whether tight gasoline and distillate supplies persist. Continued shipment recovery and another crude-stock build would favour lower prices and ease some inflation pressure on bond markets. A disruption to export routes or further fuel tightening could quickly reverse that move, potentially lifting Treasury yields and complicating the outlook for both the dollar and gold.
Technical Analysis
CL-Oil, H4:
Crude oil is trading around 89.65 with price holding near the 88.95 support after the recent rebound failed to sustain above the 92.30–95.95 resistance area. The broader structure has turned more cautious following the earlier break below the rising trendline, while the latest price action remains range-bound between 88.95 support and 92.30 resistance.
RSI is around 39, staying below 50 and indicating that bearish momentum remains present, while MACD is below the zero line suggesting downside momentum is still dominant despite some stabilization. From here, a sustained break below 88.96 could expose the next support around 86.35, while a recovery above 92.30 would be needed to improve the short-term structure and open the way toward 95.95.
Resistance Levels: 92.30, 95.95
Support Levels 88.95, 86.35
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