24/7 SUPPORT
Download App
Search
Popular Search
Published: 1 October 2026,09:38
Daily Market Analysis New
*The dollar remains supported by high US yields, despite softer PCE inflation reducing the odds of an October Fed hike.
*Stronger GDP and consumer spending have limited the dollar’s pullback and kept longer-term yields elevated.
*Gold recovered from its early Thursday low, but a lasting rally may depend on yields falling further.
The US dollar entered October near a two-month high after a strong September, supported by rising Treasury yields and expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. Wednesday’s inflation report challenged that view without overturning it. August headline PCE inflation came in at 3.4 percent year-over-year and core PCE at 3.0 percent, both below forecasts. New York Fed President John Williams also indicated that policymakers need not rush their next move. Together, these developments reduced the market-implied probability of an October rate hike to about 38 percent and briefly pulled the dollar and shorter-dated yields lower.
The dollar subsequently found support in the stronger growth picture and persistently high long-term yields. The final estimate of second-quarter US GDP was revised up to 2.2 percent annualized from 1.5 percent, while August consumer spending rose 0.9 percent from July. In Thursday’s Asian session, EUR/USD was near $1.132 and USD/JPY had climbed to around 158.2. The yen weakened despite a Bank of Japan meeting summary in which some policymakers favoured further rate increases. This suggests that the US yield advantage remains the more influential near-term force in the currency pair.
Gold showed the other side of the same rate debate. Softer PCE inflation sent bullion toward $4,220 on Wednesday, but the rally faded as Treasury yields resumed rising. Spot gold was quoted near $4,156 early Thursday before recovering to around $4,188 by 1:46 p.m. Singapore time. Lower odds of an immediate Fed hike and buying after September’s sharp decline have helped stabilize prices, while elevated yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and a firm dollar makes it more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Attention now turns to Thursday’s US jobless claims and ISM manufacturing data, then Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. A weaker labour-market reading, especially alongside softer wage growth, could further reduce expectations of Fed tightening, weigh on the dollar and support gold. Stronger data could lift yields and favour the dollar again. The key distinction is between a short-lived drop in expectations for an October hike and a sustained decline in longer-term yields; gold may need the latter for a more durable recovery.
Technical Analysis
The US Dollar Index is trading around 101.60, extending its recent recovery after breaking above the 99.60 resistance and subsequently reclaiming 100.50. Price has formed a series of higher highs and higher lows, keeping the short-term structure constructive, and is now testing the 101.60 resistance area. A sustained break above this level would reinforce the bullish structure, while a rejection could trigger a pullback toward 100.50, with 99.60 acting as the next key support.
Momentum remains supportive but is becoming more stretched. RSI is at 71, entering overbought territory, although it remains above its signal average indicating strong upside momentum. MACD remains marginally positive, with the MACD line slightly above the signal line and the histogram near zero, suggesting that bullish momentum is still present but has started to lose strength.
Resistance Levels: 102.50, 103.25
Support Levels: 100.50, 99.60
Trade forex, indices, metal, and more at industry-low spreads and lightning-fast execution.
Sign up for a PU Prime Live Account with our hassle-free process.
Effortlessly fund your account with a wide range of channels and accepted currencies.
Access hundreds of instruments under market-leading trading conditions.
Trading Platforms
Learn
About PU Prime
Corporate
Important Notice to Visitors
Our products and services are not offered or made available to residents of your jurisdiction. The information on this Website is not directed at persons in your jurisdiction and is not intended as an offer, solicitation, or promotion of our products or services to them.
By clicking “I Understand”, you acknowledge this notice and confirm that you are accessing this Website at your own initiative. Access to this Website does not mean that our products or services are available to you.
Important Notice
Please be advised that our products and services are currently unavailable to residents and entities located in the Philippines.
This restriction is a result of our firm commitment to adhering to applicable legal and regulatory requirements in all jurisdictions where we operate. In line with our internal compliance protocols and evolving global standards, we continuously assess and update access to our platform to ensure full regulatory alignment.
We appreciate your understanding and cooperation.
If you believe this restriction has been applied in error, please contact our support team for further assistance.
Dear Valued Client,
As part of PU Prime’s ongoing commitment to providing a stable and reliable trading environment, please be informed of the following weekly weekend scheduled optimisation activities:
We sincerely apologise for any inconvenience this may cause as we strive to provide you with better service. PU Prime is committed to providing you with the best trading experience and this Weekly Scheduled Optimisation Notice will enable us to ensure that you trade without any unexpected interruptions.
For other upgrades that may involve longer disruptions to your trading, we will announce them ahead of time in a separate announcement.
Important Notice:
Important Notice: Please note the Website is intended for individuals residing in jurisdictions where accessing the Website is permitted by law.
Please note that PU Prime and its affiliated entities are neither established nor operating in your home jurisdiction.
By clicking the "Acknowledge" button, you confirm that you are entering this website solely on your own initiative and not as a result of any specific marketing outreach. You wish to obtain information from this website which is provided on a reverse solicitation basis in accordance with the laws of your home jurisdiction.
Important Notice:
Please note the Website is intended for individuals residing in jurisdictions where accessing the Website is permitted by law.
Please note that PU Prime and its affiliated entities are neither established nor operating in your home jurisdiction.
By clicking the "Acknowledge" button, you confirm that you are entering this website solely based on your initiative and not as a result of any specific marketing outreach. You wish to obtain information from this website which is provided on reverse solicitation in accordance with the laws of your home jurisdiction.
Aviso importante:
Ten en cuenta que el sitio web está destinado a personas que residen en jurisdicciones donde el acceso al sitio web está permitido por la ley.
Ten en cuenta que PU Prime y sus entidades afiliadas no están establecidas ni operan en tu jurisdicción de origen.
Al hacer clic en el botón "Aceptar", confirmas que estás ingresando a este sitio web por tu propia iniciativa y no como resultado de ningún esfuerzo de marketing específico. Deseas obtener información de este sitio web que se proporciona mediante solicitud inversa de acuerdo con las leyes de tu jurisdicción de origen.
