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Published: 28 September 2026,06:35
Daily Market Analysis New
*Crude oil rebounded more than 1% after the latest US–Iran negotiations failed to produce an agreement.
*President Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under Tehran’s requested conditions.
*Brent climbed toward $106 per barrel as traders rebuilt part of the geopolitical risk premium.
*Negotiations are expected to resume this week, keeping oil highly sensitive to diplomatic headlines.
Market Summary:
Crude oil prices rebounded at the start of the week after hopes for a quick resolution to the US–Iran conflict faded once again. President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran had offered to reopen the waterway and restart nuclear negotiations if Washington lifted its naval blockade, eased restrictions on Iranian oil exports and restored a broader ceasefire. The US rejected those conditions, leaving both sides significantly apart on the main issues.
The setback revived concerns over Middle East energy supply, pushing Brent crude more than 1% higher toward $106 per barrel during early Monday trading. The Strait of Hormuz remains crucial to the oil outlook, meaning continued restrictions or renewed military escalation could quickly increase the geopolitical risk premium.
However, the upside may remain relatively limited for now. Despite the political stalemate, physical oil flows through Hormuz have improved significantly. President Trump said more than 20 million barrels moved through the strait over the weekend, while a US defence official cited roughly 22 million barrels exported on Friday night.
This creates a mixed fundamental picture. Failed negotiations support oil by keeping supply risks elevated, while stronger actual shipments reduce fears of an immediate physical shortage.
Attention now shifts toward another potential round of negotiations this week. Qatar and other regional mediators continue efforts to narrow the differences between Washington and Tehran. Further progress toward reopening Hormuz could pressure oil prices lower, while another breakdown in talks or renewed military escalation could support another move higher.
WTI crude has swept liquidity around the $93.00 level before subsequently recovering and breaking above its prevailing downtrend channel. This move represents a significant technical development and provides an early signal that selling pressure may be easing, with a potential bullish trend reversal beginning to take shape.
The breakout above the downtrend channel suggests that buyers are gradually regaining control of the market. However, further confirmation is still required, particularly around the recent low at $94.90, which has now become an important level for determining whether the bullish reversal can be sustained.
Should WTI hold above $94.90, this would strengthen the current bullish setup and provide further justification for the potential trend reversal. Conversely, a decisive break back below this level could weaken the bullish structure and increase the risk of renewed selling pressure.
Resistance Levels: 99.20, 105.70
Support Levels:92.35, 84.70
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