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Published: 25 September 2026,10:33
Daily Market Analysis New
*The Dollar Index climbed to a two-month high as US Treasury yields surged.
*The US 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2004, while expectations for further Fed tightening increased.
*Elevated oil prices continue to add inflation risks and strengthen the higher-for-longer interest-rate outlook.
*US–China talks provided a mildly constructive backdrop, although monetary policy remains the main dollar driver.
*Gold fell to around a one-week low as higher yields and dollar strength reduced demand for non-yielding bullion.
The US dollar extended its gains as a renewed global bond selloff pushed Treasury yields to multi-decade highs and strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates again.
The 30-year US Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2004, while other long-term yields also moved sharply higher. The rise has been driven by a combination of stronger US economic data, persistent inflation concerns and renewed pressure from elevated crude oil prices.
Higher oil prices remain particularly important because they increase the risk that inflation stays elevated for longer. Together with recent resilient US economic data and hawkish comments from Fed officials, this has pushed markets toward expectations of additional monetary tightening. The Dollar Index consequently reached a fresh two-month high.
US–China relations have also provided a slightly more constructive backdrop. Recent discussions produced an extension of the trade truce, while both sides continued talks on trade, technology and artificial intelligence. However, the positive diplomatic developments should be viewed mainly as a risk-sentiment factor rather than the primary reason for dollar strength. The main support for the greenback remains the combination of higher Treasury yields and Fed tightening expectations.
Gold moved in the opposite direction, extending its losses as the stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields reduced the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Gold fell more than 1% to around a one-week low as investors increased expectations that US interest rates could remain elevated or rise further.
The relationship remains relatively straightforward: higher inflation risks increase Fed hike expectations, which push Treasury yields and the dollar higher while creating pressure on gold.
For now, the fundamental bias remains supportive for the dollar and challenging for gold. However, any meaningful pullback in Treasury yields or softer US economic data could weaken the dollar’s momentum and provide room for gold to stabilise or rebound.
Dollar Index, H4:
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has broken decisively above the key resistance at 100.50, extending its recent recovery and establishing a stronger bullish structure. Price is now trading around 101.15, approaching the next major resistance at 101.60, with the breakout indicating that buying momentum has strengthened considerably.
The latest technical indicators are also supporting the bullish move. RSI has risen to around 70, approaching overbought territory and reflecting strong upward momentum, while MACD remains above the zero line with the MACD line above the signal line, confirming that bullish momentum remains in place.
However, the elevated RSI suggests that DXY could become vulnerable to a short-term pullback or consolidation after the recent sharp advance. A sustained hold above 100.50 would reinforce the breakout structure, while a break above 101.60 could open the way for further upside.
Resistance Levels:101.60, 102.40
Support Levels:100.50, 99.50
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