Fed Hike Expectations Support Dollar as Gold Stays Under Pressure
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Fed Hike Expectations Support Dollar as Gold Stays Under Pressure

Published: 28 September 2026,06:33

Published: 28 September 2026,06:33

Daily Market Analysis New

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Key Takeaways:

*The US dollar remains firm as markets continue to price another Federal Reserve rate hike in October.

*Elevated long-term Treasury yields continue to support demand for the greenback.

*Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said higher yields reflect stronger growth expectations and expectations for further tightening.

*Gold remains under pressure as higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Market Summary:

The US dollar remained supported as investors continued to expect that the Federal Reserve may need to tighten monetary policy again after its recent rate increase.

Markets are currently pricing a high probability of another Fed hike in October, while long-term Treasury yields remain elevated. Stronger US economic momentum, persistent inflation concerns and hawkish Fed commentary have all reinforced expectations that interest rates could remain higher for longer.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack also noted that the recent rise in Treasury yields has been driven by stronger growth expectations, concerns surrounding government debt and expectations for additional rate increases. This backdrop continues to support the greenback by improving the relative attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets.

Gold, meanwhile, remained under pressure near key support levels. Higher Treasury yields and expectations for further Fed tightening continue to reduce the appeal of non-yielding bullion.

The ongoing US–Iran conflict creates a more complicated backdrop for gold. Geopolitical tensions normally support safe-haven demand, but continued disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz are also keeping energy prices elevated. Higher energy costs increase inflation risks, which in turn strengthen expectations that the Fed may need to raise rates again.

For now, the fundamental picture remains supportive for the dollar and challenging for gold. Gold may require either a meaningful decline in Treasury yields, softer US economic data, or a reduction in Fed hike expectations before a more sustainable recovery can develop.

Technical Analysis

Gold market technical analysis banner dated 28 September 2026 showing a descending price channel with candlesticks, RSI and MACD indicators (Bearish).

Gold, H4: 

Gold continues to trade within a bearish price structure and has recently recorded a new low below the $4,200 mark, further confirming the prevailing bearish bias. The latest downside move suggests that selling pressure remains dominant, with buyers continuing to struggle to regain control of the market.

Meanwhile, both the MACD and RSI continue to trend lower, indicating that bearish momentum is strengthening. The continued deterioration in both indicators suggests that downside pressure remains firmly in place and could support further selling in the near term.

Should the current bearish momentum persist, gold could extend its downward trajectory and potentially move toward lower support levels as sellers continue to dominate the market. However, any meaningful technical rebound would require a stabilization in momentum and a recovery above key resistance areas to weaken the current bearish structure.

Resistance Levels:4374.10, 4518.30

Support Levels:4100.00, 4000.00

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