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Published: 1 July 2026,07:42
Daily Market Analysis New
*Dollar Index stays steady as markets await U.S. jobs data
*Nonfarm Payrolls may shape the next move in Treasury yields and Fed expectations
*Gold remains pressured below $4,000 as USD strength and risk-on sentiment weigh
The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, remained relatively flat as investors waited for the upcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate reports. The data, due Thursday, is expected to provide the next major signal for the dollar, Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Markets are paying close attention to whether the U.S. labor market remains resilient. A stronger-than-expected jobs report could support the dollar by reinforcing expectations that the Fed may keep interest rates elevated for longer. In contrast, weaker labor data could pressure the greenback and pull Treasury yields lower, especially if investors begin pricing in a softer policy outlook.
This cautious dollar backdrop has kept gold under pressure. The precious metal continued to trade below the psychological level of $4,000, weighed down by a relatively firm U.S. dollar and resilient U.S. economic data. As gold is priced in dollars, a stronger greenback makes the metal more expensive for foreign buyers, while higher yield expectations reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets.
At the same time, improving global risk appetite has further limited demand for safe-haven gold. U.S. equities led the rally, with major indexes recording their best quarter in six years as traders responded positively to stronger economic data and easing geopolitical concerns.
The potential ceasefire deal between the United States and Iran has also reduced defensive demand in the market. With investors rotating back into riskier assets, gold has struggled to attract strong upside momentum despite remaining near a key psychological level.
Overall, gold remains pressured by a combination of steady dollar strength, resilient U.S. data, and improving equity sentiment. Unless U.S. economic data weakens meaningfully or geopolitical risks return, the precious metal may continue to struggle below the $4,000 level in the near term.
Technical Analysis
GOLD, H4:
Gold prices are trading lower, currently hovering near the 4,055.00 support level, which remains a key downside pivot.
Market attention is focused on a potential breakdown below this support zone. A confirmed break below 4,055.00 could extend losses toward the next support at 3,720.00, signaling a deeper corrective move.
However, momentum indicators suggest that selling pressure may be easing. The MACD is showing diminishing bearish momentum, while the RSI at 36 is forming a bullish crossover, indicating the possibility of a short-term technical rebound.
If bearish momentum fails to persist, gold may recover and retest the 4,365.00 resistance level, with further upside toward 4,855.00 if momentum strengthens.
Resistance Levels: 4365.00, 4855.00
Support Levels: 4055.00, 3720.00
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