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*Markets are heavily pricing a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike at today’s FOMC meeting.
*Stronger US CPI, PPI and employment data have reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy.
*The US 10-year Treasury yield briefly climbed above 5%, its highest level since 2007.
The Dollar Index continued to strengthen ahead of today’s Federal Reserve policy decision as investors increasingly positioned for another increase in US interest rates.
Recent stronger-than-expected inflation and employment data, combined with elevated crude oil prices, have significantly changed expectations for Fed policy. Interest-rate futures are now pricing roughly a 90%–92% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, compared with around 59% a week earlier.
The repricing has triggered another sharp rise in Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year yield briefly moved above 5%, reaching its highest level since 2007, as persistent inflation, heavy bond issuance and expectations for tighter Fed policy pressured the Treasury market.
Higher yields have provided additional support for the dollar by increasing the relative attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets.
Gold, meanwhile, remained under pressure ahead of the Fed decision. A stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields continue to create a difficult backdrop for the non-yielding metal, despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
The Fed’s forward guidance will now be as important as the rate decision itself. A 25 bp hike accompanied by a hawkish outlook could provide further support for the dollar and pressure gold, while a more cautious message on future tightening could trigger profit-taking in the dollar and allow bullion to recover.

GOLD, H4:
Gold prices are trading lower after breaking below the previous 4,305.00 support level, signaling a bearish shift in short-term structure.
Momentum indicators remain tilted to the downside, with the MACD showing diminishing bullish momentum and the RSI at 47 staying below the midline. This suggests that gold may have a higher chance of extending its losses if selling pressure persists.
If bearish momentum continues, gold could extend its decline toward the next support level at 4,190.00, followed by 4,085.00 if downside pressure strengthens.
However, if bearish momentum begins to fade, gold may stage a technical rebound and retest the 4,305.00 resistance level, followed by 4,445.00 if recovery momentum improves.
Resistance Levels: 4305.00, 4445.00
Support Levels: 4190.00, 4085.00
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