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Published: 14 October 2026,07:15
Daily Market Analysis New
*Oil rebounded overnight on renewed Saudi supply concerns after an attack caused a limited fire at a Saudi Aramco building.
*Attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and higher freight costs can keep delivered oil expensive even as OPEC+ production rises.
*Russian diesel relief remains prospective. U.S. diesel futures rose around 5% Tuesday despite discussion of additional Russian exports.
Oil’s near-term risk premium rose after attacks on Riyadh’s airport and reports of tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz raised concern about the security of Middle Eastern supply routes. Brent settled Monday at $106.65 a barrel and WTI at about $93.74, both gaining close to $2. Energy shares benefited even as higher fuel costs added to inflation concerns for the wider market. The attacks have not, by themselves, established a lasting loss of crude production; the immediate price response reflects the risk that further strikes could interrupt shipments or energy infrastructure.
Tuesday brought a partial reversal. By 6:25 a.m. GMT, Brent had fallen to $105.47 and WTI to $92.57 as traders weighed the prospect of more Russian diesel reaching international markets. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said exports could reach 3.0–3.5 million metric tons per month by year-end. That is potential future supply, not evidence that those volumes are already arriving. Damage to Russian refineries, export restrictions and the uncertain durability of the proposed Russia–Ukraine energy truce all matter to how much relief the fuel market ultimately receives.
The distinction between available crude and deliverable fuel is especially important now. OPEC and non-OPEC ministers said interruptions to energy routes had driven shipping and insurance costs to more than one-third of the commodity’s value in affected flows, slowing the movement of crude and refined products and adding costs throughout the supply chain. Saudi Aramco’s chief executive also warned that pressure on global energy supply could persist until the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens. Consequently, an announcement of additional diesel supply can lower futures prices quickly without immediately resolving transport bottlenecks or tightness in fuel available to buyers.
For oil, the next directional signal is whether the physical picture confirms Tuesday’s price relief: Russian diesel export volumes, the safety and cost of Gulf shipping, and any further attacks on Saudi or tanker infrastructure. Sustained improvement in deliveries would reduce the inflation pressure feeding into dollar and Fed expectations. Renewed disruption could lift crude and fuel prices again, complicating the outlook for gold and rate-sensitive assets just as US CPI approaches.
Crude Oil, H4:
Crude oil is trading around 95.00 showing a recovery after consolidating within the 88.20–94.05 range. Price has climbed above the 91.80 and 94.05 resistance levels and is now approaching the next key resistance at 96.25.
RSI has risen to around 64, indicating strengthening bullish momentum, while MACD remains above the zero line, with the MACD line above the signal line and a positive histogram, supporting the ongoing recovery. From here, a sustained break above 96.25 could open the way toward 98.55, while a rejection at this level may trigger a pullback toward 94.05 and 91.80. Overall, the short-term bias is cautiously bullish as long as crude oil holds above the reclaimed 94.05 support, although the 96.25 resistance remains a key hurdle for further upside.
Resistance Levels: 96.25, 98.55
Support Levels: 94.05, 91.80
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