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Published: 13 November 2025,03:18
Daily Market Analysis New
*Diminishing odds of a December rate hike by the Bank of Japan trigger renewed yen selling.
*PM Takaichi favors maintaining low rates to support fragile recovery, reinforcing dovish sentiment.
*Intervention risks remain on watch as officials warn against excessive currency moves.
Market Summary:
The Japanese yen extended its decline, as markets further discounted the likelihood of a December rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Growing concerns that the new Japanese government could influence the central bank to delay further tightening have added downward pressure on the currency, fueling renewed yen selling across major pairs.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi reiterated on Wednesday her preference for keeping interest rates low to safeguard Japan’s fragile post-pandemic recovery. She emphasized that inflation, largely driven by food prices, risks hurting household consumption, and that the government will coordinate closely with the BoJ to ensure that price gains are supported by sustainable wage growth rather than cost-push pressures. Her remarks were interpreted by markets as a signal of continued accommodative policy, dampening speculation of near-term monetary tightening.
Nonetheless, expectations of possible foreign exchange intervention have helped limit the yen’s losses. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama noted recent “one-sided and rapid” movements in the currency market, adding that authorities are monitoring FX moves with a high sense of urgency. Such statements have kept traders wary of testing the yen’s downside too aggressively, especially as USD/JPY trades near historically sensitive levels.
Overall, with mixed policy signals and growing fiscal-monetary coordination under the new administration, the yen remains caught between dovish domestic fundamentals and intervention risks. Until the BoJ provides clearer guidance on its policy trajectory, volatility in the yen is likely to persist.
Technical Analysis
USD/JPY continues to trade higher after breaking above the previous resistance level of 154.40. The MACD shows strengthening bullish momentum, while the RSI at 63 remains above the midline, suggesting further upside potential.
If the bullish bias persists, the pair could extend gains toward the next resistance level at 156.00. However, failure to sustain above 154.40 may trigger a pullback toward 152.90 if the pair breaks below this support.
Resistance level: 156.00, 158.60
Support level: 154.40, 152.90
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