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Published: 13 November 2025,03:18
Daily Market Analysis New
*The cartel’s latest report shifted its 2026 market outlook from a projected deficit to a surplus of 500,000 bpd, signaling a decisive turn toward oversupply.
*Oil prices plunged over 4%, the sharpest daily loss since June, as technical structures flipped into contango, confirming near-term glut conditions.
*A tentative Israel–Iran ceasefire has reduced supply-risk premiums, removing one of the few bullish drivers in recent months.
Market Summary:
Crude oil prices extended their decline this week, with WTI plunging over 4% to near $58.50 a barrel, its sharpest daily drop since June. The selloff reflects mounting concerns over surging supply and fading demand momentum, as traders recalibrate to a weaker fundamental backdrop.
The downturn was triggered by a bearish shift in OPEC’s outlook, which now projects a third-quarter surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, reversing its previous deficit forecast. The move underscores the impact of record U.S. output and rising OPEC+ production, tipping the market toward oversupply. This was confirmed technically as WTI’s timespread flipped into contango, a structure signaling abundant near-term supply.
Adding to the pressure, the EIA raised its 2026 U.S. production forecast to 13.59 million barrels per day, warning that global inventories will keep rising through next year. Brent is now expected to average around $63 a barrel in early 2026. The shift has fueled systematic fund liquidations, with CTAs estimated to sell up to 25% of their WTI exposure, amplifying downside momentum.
While a tentative Israel–Iran ceasefire has eased geopolitical risks, it has also removed a key bullish driver. Meanwhile, sluggish U.S. growth and high inventories continue to weigh on sentiment. Traders now look ahead to OPEC+’s December policy meeting for potential deeper cuts, but until then, the market remains fundamentally bearish, with WTI likely to stay capped below $60 absent a strong policy intervention or demand rebound.
Technical Analysis
WTI crude oil (USOIL) has experienced a sharp decline after failing to sustain its recent breakout above the $61.00–$62.00 resistance zone. The price broke down from a symmetrical triangle formation, signaling a shift in sentiment back toward the bearish side. Currently, oil is trading around $58.30, testing the support area near $57.85. A sustained break below this level could expose further downside potential toward the next key support zone around $55.50.
From a technical perspective, the overall structure still favors the bears, as the broader downtrend channel remains intact. The RSI has fallen sharply to around 31, indicating that bearish momentum is strong and that the asset is approaching oversold territory. Meanwhile, the MACD has turned negative again, with a widening gap between the MACD and signal lines, reinforcing the bearish momentum.
In summary, crude oil remains under downside pressure following a failed bullish breakout. While the RSI suggests a possible short-term oversold rebound, the overall bias remains bearish unless the price reclaims the $61.00 level decisively.
Resistance Levels: $59.90, $62.80
Support Levels: $57.85, $55.50
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