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Published: 23 July 2026,06:17
Daily Market Analysis New
*Japanese yen rebounds after hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan
*Markets increase bets on another BOJ rate hike by October
*Finance Minister warns authorities are ready to take bold action if needed
The Japanese yen rebounded slightly after the Bank of Japan released a more hawkish policy message, signalling a potential shift away from its ultra-loose monetary stance. The central bank’s comments raised expectations that further rate normalisation could take place, providing short-term support for the yen against the U.S. dollar.
Money markets have increased their bets on another BOJ rate hike by October after the central bank raised interest rates to 1.0% in June. Overnight-index swaps now imply around an 84% probability of a rate hike in October, up from 72% before the latest report. This shift suggests that investors are increasingly pricing in a more hawkish BOJ policy path.
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama also warned markets that authorities are ready to take “appropriate and bold action” if needed. She added that Japan’s stance on potential currency intervention remains unchanged, reinforcing the message that policymakers may step in if yen weakness becomes excessive.
However, the yen’s rebound remained limited as overall market confidence toward Japan continues to stay weak. Investors remain cautious over Japan’s economic outlook, and some traders are still skeptical that authorities will take decisive intervention measures unless currency weakness becomes more disorderly.
As a result, while hawkish BOJ signals and intervention warnings may help stabilise the yen in the short term, stronger upside momentum may require clearer evidence of sustained policy tightening, better economic performance, or direct action from Japanese authorities.
Overall, the yen remains supported by rising BOJ rate hike expectations, but gains are likely to remain capped as long as market confidence toward Japan remains fragile and traders continue to question the strength of potential intervention.
Technical Analysis
USD/JPY, H4:
USD/JPY is trading higher, currently testing the 163.25 resistance level, which acts as a key near-term breakout zone.
A confirmed breakout above 163.25 could extend gains toward the next resistance level at 164.20, reinforcing the bullish structure.
However, momentum indicators suggest caution. The MACD is showing diminishing bullish momentum, while the RSI at 64 is forming a bearish crossover, indicating the possibility of a short-term technical correction.
If bullish momentum fails to persist, the pair may retrace toward the 162.50 support level, followed by 161.80 if selling pressure strengthens.
Resistance Levels: 163.25, 164.20
Support Levels: 162.50, 161.80
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