Published: 13 November 2025,03:33
Daily Market Analysis New
*Traders await the UK’s Q3 GDP data, expected to show steady growth of 1.4% year-on-year.
*Bank of England projected 1.5% growth this year but may still consider another 25 bps rate cut in December.
*Dollar weakness limits GBP/USD downside amid U.S. budget uncertainty and potential government shutdown risks.
Market Summary:
The Pound Sterling remained steady ahead of the release of the UK’s Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Market consensus points to a 1.4% annualized growth rate, suggesting that the economy has maintained its pace of expansion despite broader global headwinds. A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce optimism over the UK’s resilience, while a downside surprise might fuel expectations for additional monetary easing.
During its latest policy meeting, the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) projected the domestic economy to expand by 1.5% in 2025. However, given the recent signs of a cooling labor market and easing inflationary pressures, policymakers are expected to maintain a cautious stance. Markets are currently pricing in the likelihood of a 25 basis-point rate cut at the BoE’s 18 December meeting, especially if incoming data confirms the loss of economic momentum.
Beyond domestic indicators, external factors are also playing a role in supporting the GBP/USD pair. The U.S. dollar has come under mild selling pressure amid renewed uncertainty over the U.S. government shutdown and budget negotiations, prompting some investors to diversify toward other major currencies, including the pound.
Looking ahead, traders will closely watch two key catalysts — the UK GDP report and developments surrounding the U.S. fiscal situation. The interplay between these factors could determine the near-term trajectory of GBP/USD, with a positive GDP surprise likely to strengthen sterling sentiment, while renewed U.S. political risks could continue to weigh on the dollar.
Technical Analysis
GBP/USD, H4:
GBP/USD trades lower after a confirmed breakout below the previous support level at 1.3170, now acting as resistance. The move represents a classic breakout–retest pattern. The MACD indicates weakening bullish momentum, while the RSI sits at 37, staying below the midline — signaling that bearish momentum may continue.
If the downtrend extends, the pair could retest the next support level at 1.2900. Conversely, a rebound above 1.3170 would suggest a potential shift toward consolidation or recovery.
Resistance level: 1.3170, 1.3415
Support level: 1.2900, 1.2720
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