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Market Insights > Daily Market Analysis New

Oil Surges as US-Iran Escalation Renews Supply Disruption Fears

Published: 14 July 2026,08:30

Daily Market Analysis New

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Key Takeaways:

*Oil prices extended their rally as renewed US-Iran conflict heightened fears of supply disruptions.

*The Strait of Hormuz remains the key market focus, with shipping activity slowing amid escalating military tensions.

*Attacks on commercial vessels and blockade measures have increased the geopolitical risk premium in crude prices.

Market Summary:

Crude oil prices extended their sharp rally after renewed military escalation between the United States and Iran reignited concerns over global energy supply security. The United States launched another round of strikes against Iranian military targets, while President Donald Trump announced the reinstatement of a naval blockade on Iran and proposed charging transit fees for vessels using the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran continued missile and drone attacks, targeted commercial shipping and maintained threats to close the strategic waterway, significantly increasing the geopolitical risk premium in oil markets.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the market’s primary focus as it handles roughly 20% of global seaborne crude oil shipments. Shipping activity through the strait has already declined to multi-week lows, while reports of attacks on commercial tankers and heightened military operations have fuelled concerns that any prolonged disruption could severely tighten global oil supplies. Although the waterway remains partially operational, traders continue to price in the growing possibility of further supply interruptions should the conflict intensify.

Oil prices also received additional support from concerns that rising energy costs could feed into global inflation and delay central bank policy easing. Brent crude recorded its largest daily gain since May 2020, surging nearly 10%, while both Brent and WTI climbed to their highest levels in about four weeks. The sharp rally reflects a market increasingly focused on supply risks rather than demand fundamentals, despite OPEC recently lowering its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast.

Looking ahead, oil prices are expected to remain highly volatile as markets closely monitor military developments, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, US crude inventory data and any diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran. A prolonged disruption to regional oil exports or further attacks on shipping infrastructure could push crude prices towards fresh yearly highs. Conversely, any signs of de-escalation or successful diplomatic negotiations could quickly remove part of the geopolitical risk premium and trigger a sharp correction in oil prices.

Technical Analysis

Candlestick chart showing price rising toward 80 with blue horizontal support/resistance lines at key levels; RSI and MACD indicators plotted below.

Crude Oil, H4:

Crude oil has staged a strong bullish reversal after establishing a medium-term base near the 66.70 support area. Price has broken decisively above the previous resistance at 76.20, confirming a shift in market structure from a series of lower highs to higher highs and higher lows. The rally has now extended toward 80.30, the highest level since the decline began in May.

Momentum indicators continue to favor further upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to around 76, entering overbought territory. While this reflects strong buying pressure, it also suggests that the market may become vulnerable to short-term profit-taking or consolidation before extending higher. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains firmly in bullish territory, with the MACD line holding above the signal line and the positive histogram expanding. This indicates that bullish momentum continues to strengthen despite the elevated RSI reading. Overall, the technical outlook remains bullish.

Resistance Levels: 76.20, 86.90

Support Levels: 66.70, 56.65

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