FOMC Minutes, Services PMIs & Treasury Auctions in Focus

The Week Ahead: Week of July 6, 2026 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
Markets enter the second week of July digesting a solid U.S. labor market report that reinforced the economy’s resilience while leaving the Federal Reserve in no rush to begin easing policy. Although inflation has continued to moderate gradually, policymakers have repeatedly emphasized that additional evidence is needed before considering rate cuts, placing renewed focus on incoming economic data and Fed communications.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risks have eased following the Israel-Iran ceasefire, helping stabilize energy markets and improve investor sentiment. However, markets continue to monitor U.S. trade policy after President Trump’s administration reaffirmed its intention to pursue broader tariff measures, keeping uncertainty surrounding global trade and inflation expectations elevated.

With relatively few top-tier data releases this week, investors will concentrate on the FOMC Minutes for clues on policymakers’ thinking, while services-sector activity, Treasury auctions, and housing data provide further insight into the health of the U.S. economy.

Key Events to Watch:

Monday, July 6 – 16:45

U.S. S&P Global Services PMI (Jun)

Previous: 50.7 | Forecast: 51.3 | Actual: N/A

The preliminary services PMI will provide an early snapshot of business activity across the U.S. services sector, which accounts for the majority of economic output. A stronger reading would reinforce confidence that domestic demand remains resilient despite restrictive monetary policy. A weaker print could revive concerns that higher borrowing costs are beginning to slow the broader economy.

Monday, July 6 – 17:00

U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jun)

Previous: 71.3 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The prices-paid component will be closely watched for signs of inflationary pressure within the services sector. Persistent cost pressures could reinforce expectations that inflation will remain sticky, potentially delaying future Fed rate cuts. A softer reading would strengthen confidence that price pressures continue to moderate.

Monday, July 6 – 17:00

U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

Previous: 54.5 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The ISM Services PMI remains one of the most important indicators of U.S. economic momentum. Continued expansion above 50 would suggest that consumer spending and business activity remain healthy, supporting equities and the U.S. dollar. A weaker outcome could fuel concerns that growth is beginning to lose momentum.

Wednesday, July 8 – 05:00

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

Previous: 2.25% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy decision will be monitored for any changes in guidance regarding inflation and economic growth. Markets will focus less on the rate decision itself and more on whether policymakers signal a shift toward easing or maintain a cautious stance amid improving inflation dynamics.

Wednesday, July 8 – 17:30

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

Previous: -3.775M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Following the recent stabilization in Middle East tensions, oil markets remain focused on supply-demand fundamentals. Another sizeable inventory draw could support crude prices and lift inflation expectations, while a surprise build may place renewed pressure on oil prices and reinforce the broader disinflation narrative.

Wednesday, July 8 – 20:00

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Auction

Previous Yield: 4.538% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Demand for intermediate-term Treasuries will be closely monitored following recent volatility in bond markets. Strong demand could help lower yields and improve financial conditions, while weak participation may push yields higher and weigh on equity valuations.

Wednesday, July 8 – 21:00

FOMC Meeting Minutes

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting may provide additional insight into policymakers’ assessment of inflation, labor market conditions, and the timing of future policy adjustments. Investors will look for clues regarding the level of confidence needed before rate cuts can begin. Any indication that officials remain concerned about persistent inflation could support Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, while a more balanced discussion may reinforce expectations for easing later this year.

Thursday, July 9 – 15:30

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

Previous: 215K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Weekly jobless claims remain one of the timeliest indicators of labor market conditions. Stable claims would reinforce the view that employment remains resilient, while an unexpected rise could indicate that hiring momentum is gradually weakening, strengthening expectations for eventual Fed easing.

Thursday, July 9 – 17:00

U.S. Existing Home Sales (Jun)

Previous: 4.17M | Forecast: 4.20M | Actual: N/A

Housing activity remains highly sensitive to interest rates and consumer confidence. An improvement in sales would suggest demand is stabilizing despite elevated mortgage rates, supporting the broader economic outlook. Conversely, weaker sales could highlight continued challenges within the housing market.

Thursday, July 9 – 20:01

U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bond Auction

Previous Yield: 5.050% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Long-duration Treasury demand will offer another important gauge of investor confidence in the long-term inflation outlook and U.S. fiscal position. Strong auction demand could ease upward pressure on long-term yields, while weak demand may push borrowing costs higher across financial markets.

Friday, July 10 – 09:00

German CPI (MoM) (Jun)

Previous: -0.3% | Forecast: -0.3% | Actual: N/A

Germany’s monthly inflation data will provide an early indication of price pressures within the Eurozone. A firmer-than-expected reading could temper expectations for further ECB easing and support the euro. Softer inflation would reinforce the disinflation trend and keep markets comfortable with a gradual normalization of monetary policy.

Market Focus for the Week

With the major labor market data already behind markets, attention now turns toward Federal Reserve communication, services-sector momentum, and Treasury market demand. Investors will be looking for confirmation that the U.S. economy continues to expand without reigniting inflation. The FOMC Minutes are expected to be the week’s primary catalyst, while Treasury auctions and services PMI data could shape expectations for interest rates and broader market sentiment heading into the second half of July.