Inflation, ECB & U.S. CPI Take Center Stage

The Week Ahead: Week of September 7, 2026 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
The upcoming week begins with thinner liquidity as the U.S. and Canada observe Labor Day, while Brazil also remains on holiday Monday. With several major markets closed, early-week trading could be more sensitive to geopolitical headlines and positioning.

The biggest macro theme remains the shifting inflation outlook. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.3% YoY in August, well above the ECB’s 2% target, driven largely by higher energy prices. Markets are now fully pricing a 25bp ECB rate hike on September 10, which would take the deposit rate to 2.50%.

Meanwhile, the U.S. inflation outlook is becoming increasingly complicated by energy and trade pressures. Fed Governor Christopher Waller has indicated that the Fed could keep rates unchanged if inflation continues to cool, but would support a hike if price pressures reaccelerate. This leaves upcoming U.S. PPI and CPI data particularly important for September policy expectations.

Geopolitical risks have also intensified. The U.S. launched new strikes against Iran this week, followed by Iranian retaliation, while restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns about energy supply disruptions. Oil prices have moved above $90 a barrel as markets price a greater risk of prolonged disruption, creating additional upside risks for global inflation.

Trade policy remains another source of uncertainty. The Trump administration continues to push for changes to global trade arrangements, while tensions with Canada have escalated following new U.S. tariffs and Canadian retaliation. At the G20 level, most finance leaders backed action against trade distortions, keeping tariff policy firmly in focus for global markets.

Against this backdrop, Thursday’s ECB decision and Friday’s U.S. CPI report are likely to be the week’s biggest market catalysts. Stronger inflation could reinforce expectations for tighter policy, while softer price data could ease pressure on central banks and support risk assets.

Key Events to Watch

Tuesday, September 8 – 02:50

Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q2)

Previous: 0.5% | Forecast: 0.3% | Actual: N/A

Japan’s second-quarter GDP reading will provide an important assessment of domestic economic momentum following the stronger previous-quarter expansion. A weaker-than-expected result could reduce expectations for further BoJ tightening and weigh on the yen, while resilient growth could strengthen the case for additional normalization.

Wednesday, September 9 – 20:00

U.S. 10-Year Note Auction

Previous: 4.683% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The 10-year Treasury auction will provide a real-time gauge of investor demand for U.S. government debt amid elevated inflation and fiscal concerns. Strong demand could help contain Treasury yields, while weak demand could push yields higher and provide support for the dollar.

Thursday, September 10 – 09:00

German CPI (MoM) (Aug)

Previous: 0.8% | Forecast: 0.2% | Actual: N/A

Germany’s final August inflation reading will be closely watched ahead of the ECB decision. A stronger result could reinforce expectations that European inflation remains persistent and support EUR, while softer inflation could reduce pressure for further ECB tightening.

Thursday, September 10 – 15:15

ECB Deposit Facility Rate (Sep)

Previous: 2.25% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The ECB is widely expected to raise the deposit facility rate as inflation has moved further above target, particularly following the acceleration in energy prices. The size and tone of the decision will be important for EUR and European bond yields, especially as markets assess whether additional hikes could follow.

Thursday, September 10 – 15:15

ECB Interest Rate Decision (Sep)

Previous: 2.40% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The ECB’s broader policy decision will be one of the week’s major events. With Eurozone inflation at 3.3%, policymakers face a difficult balance between controlling renewed price pressures and avoiding excessive tightening while growth remains modest. A hawkish decision could support EUR and European yields, while a cautious approach could limit the euro’s upside.

Thursday, September 10 – 15:15

U.S. PPI (MoM) (Aug)

Previous: 0.0% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

U.S. producer prices will provide an early indication of pipeline inflation before Friday’s CPI release. A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce concerns that tariffs and higher energy costs are feeding into domestic prices, potentially pushing Treasury yields and the dollar higher. A softer print would support expectations for a more patient Fed.

Thursday, September 10 – 15:30

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Weekly jobless claims will offer a timely update on labor-market conditions. A rise in claims would reinforce concerns about employment weakness and could support expectations for easier Fed policy, while stable claims would suggest that the labor market remains relatively resilient.

Thursday, September 10 – 15:45

ECB Press Conference

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The ECB press conference could generate more volatility than the rate decision itself as markets assess the path beyond September. Guidance on energy-driven inflation, the war in the Middle East and the possibility of further tightening will be particularly important for EUR and European bonds. ECB policymakers have warned that prolonged Middle East tensions could keep inflation elevated through higher energy costs.

Thursday, September 10 – 17:00

U.S. Existing Home Sales (Aug)

Previous: 4.06M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Existing home sales will provide another indication of the health of the U.S. housing market. A stronger reading could support the broader growth outlook, while weaker activity could signal that elevated borrowing costs are continuing to weigh on housing demand.

Friday, September 11 – 09:00

U.K. GDP (MoM) (Jul)

Previous: 0.3% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

July GDP will provide an updated view of the U.K. economy ahead of upcoming BoE policy discussions. Stronger growth could support GBP by reducing expectations for aggressive easing, while weak activity could reinforce concerns over economic momentum and pressure the pound.

Friday, September 11 – 15:30

U.S. CPI (MoM) (Aug)

Previous: 0.1% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Monthly CPI will be one of the most important releases of the week. Markets will closely assess whether higher energy prices and tariff-related costs are beginning to feed into consumer inflation. A hotter-than-expected reading could push Treasury yields higher and strengthen the dollar as markets price a more hawkish Fed. A softer print could support expectations for easier policy and provide relief for equities and gold.

Friday, September 11 – 15:30

U.S. CPI (YoY) (Aug)

Previous: 3.4% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Annual CPI will provide a broader picture of inflation persistence. With the Fed already cautious about declaring victory over inflation, an upside surprise could significantly challenge expectations for policy easing. Conversely, continued disinflation would strengthen the case for a more accommodative stance.

Friday, September 11 – 15:30

U.S. Core CPI (MoM) (Aug)

Previous: 0.2% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Core CPI will likely receive particular attention because it strips out volatile food and energy prices. A stronger reading would suggest underlying inflation remains sticky despite changes in headline energy prices, potentially supporting the dollar and weighing on rate-sensitive assets. A softer print would provide the Fed with greater flexibility.