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Published: 29 September 2026,05:56
Daily Market Analysis NewUncategorized
*The Dollar Index remains near a two-month high as US Treasury yields continue to climb.
*The US 10-year Treasury yield is trading near its highest level since June 2007.
*Markets are pricing roughly a 70% probability of another Fed rate hike in October.
*Elevated oil prices continue to add inflation risks and reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy.
The US dollar remained firmly supported near a two-month high as rising Treasury yields and stronger expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening continued to dominate market sentiment.
The recent global bond selloff has pushed US borrowing costs sharply higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching its highest level since June 2007. Elevated oil prices have added to inflation concerns, while resilient US economic conditions have encouraged markets to price a higher probability of another Fed rate increase.
According to current market expectations, traders are pricing roughly a 70% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in October, significantly higher than a week earlier. The higher-rate environment continues to increase the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets and provide support for the greenback.
Gold moved sharply in the opposite direction, falling almost 4% on Monday as the combination of a stronger dollar, rising Treasury yields and higher Fed rate-hike expectations triggered heavy selling pressure.
Higher Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, while dollar strength makes bullion more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Elevated oil prices have also added another challenge by increasing inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that the Fed may need to maintain a tighter policy stance.
The next major catalyst will be the US PCE inflation report. A stronger-than-expected reading could further strengthen Fed hike expectations, support Treasury yields and the dollar, and place additional pressure on gold. Softer inflation, however, could ease some of the recent yield pressure and allow bullion to stabilise or rebound.
Gold, H4:
Gold came under heavy selling pressure after breaking below its recent trading range and breaching the critical support level at $4,258.70. The decisive move lower reinforced the near-term bearish signal, suggesting that sellers remain firmly in control of price action.
However, the speed and magnitude of the decline have left the market technically stretched, raising the prospect of a short-term rebound before the broader bearish trend resumes. Gold has since found initial support near $4,116.35, where bargain hunting and profit-taking by short sellers could help stabilize prices.
The $4,200 psychological level will be closely monitored as the key resistance target during any recovery. A failure to reclaim and hold above this threshold would suggest that the rebound is corrective and could pave the way for another leg lower. Conversely, a sustained break above $4,200 may indicate that bearish momentum is easing and allow for a broader near-term recovery.
Resistance Levels:4258.70, 4393.85
Support Levels:4016.70, 3908.90
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