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Published: 29 September 2026,05:58
Daily Market Analysis New
*Crude oil remains highly volatile as markets react to conflicting signals from US–Iran negotiations.
*President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal, keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed and supply risks elevated.
*Washington has also signalled that it could ease sanctions and release frozen Iranian assets if Tehran makes concrete nuclear progress.
*Any agreement could bring more Iranian crude back to the market and improve tanker traffic through Hormuz.
Market Summary:
Crude oil remained volatile as markets continued to assess mixed developments surrounding negotiations between the United States and Iran.
Oil initially received support after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal, keeping hopes for a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz limited. With the crucial shipping route still restricted, concerns over Middle East supply disruption remain an important bullish factor for crude prices.
However, the upside has been capped by signs that Washington may still be willing to negotiate. A US official indicated that the Trump administration could consider easing sanctions and releasing frozen Iranian assets in exchange for concrete progress on Iran’s nuclear programme.
Such an agreement could have important implications for global oil supply. Reduced sanctions could allow more Iranian barrels to return to international markets, while an eventual reopening of Hormuz would improve tanker flows and reduce the geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in crude prices.
This leaves oil caught between two competing forces. The continued political stalemate and closed Strait of Hormuz support prices, while the possibility of sanctions relief and renewed Iranian exports creates downside risk.
For now, crude oil is likely to remain headline-driven. Any further breakdown in negotiations could strengthen supply concerns and support prices, while credible progress toward a deal could trigger renewed selling pressure as markets anticipate stronger Middle East oil flows.
Brent crude is showing signs of recovering from its earlier downtrend, with prices returning toward their recent peak. However, the latest price action indicates that bullish momentum is beginning to fade as the contract encounters resistance near the upper end of its recent range.
The $103.15 level remains a key near-term support and an important gauge of the market’s underlying strength. As long as Brent holds firmly above this threshold, the broader bullish trajectory is likely to remain intact, leaving scope for another attempt to test or surpass its recent high.
Conversely, a decisive break below $103.15 would signal a loss of upward momentum and weaken the current bullish structure. Such a move could trigger renewed selling pressure and expose Brent to a deeper short-term pullback.
Resistance Levels: 110.00, 115.15
Support Levels:103.15, 97.80
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