The Week Ahead: Week of May 25, 2026 (GMT+3)
Weekly Market Preview
The upcoming week begins with reduced trading activity across several major financial centers due to public holidays in the U.S., UK, Hong Kong, Switzerland, and South Korea. Lower liquidity conditions early in the week could amplify market volatility, particularly across FX and commodities, as investors position ahead of several key U.S. macro releases.
Attention will center on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, revised U.S. GDP data, and durable goods orders as markets continue debating whether inflation pressures are cooling fast enough to justify policy easing later in the year. Recent Treasury market volatility and elevated long-end yields have reinforced sensitivity toward inflation surprises, making Thursday’s Core PCE release especially important for rates and dollar direction.
Globally, central bank communication will also remain in focus. The RBNZ rate decision and ECB press conference may provide fresh clues on how policymakers are balancing slowing growth against lingering inflation pressures. Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturing PMI data at the end of the week could influence broader sentiment surrounding global demand and industrial recovery.
Although geopolitical conditions have stabilized somewhat following recent ceasefire discussions and easing tensions across major trade routes, markets remain cautious that renewed geopolitical risks or commodity volatility could quickly disrupt the current improvement in sentiment.The upcoming week begins with reduced trading activity across several major financial centers due to public holidays in the U.S., UK, Hong Kong, Switzerland, and South Korea. Lower liquidity conditions early in the week could amplify market volatility, particularly across FX and commodities, as investors position ahead of several key U.S. macro releases.
Key Events to Watch:
Tuesday, May 26 – 17:00
U.S. CB Consumer Confidence (May)
Previous: 92.8 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Consumer confidence will provide insight into how households are responding to persistent inflation, elevated borrowing costs, and ongoing labor market adjustments. A stronger reading would reinforce the view that consumer spending remains resilient despite tighter financial conditions, supporting equities and the dollar. A weaker outcome could revive concerns that slowing household demand may begin weighing more heavily on overall economic growth.
Wednesday, May 27 – 05:00
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
Previous: 2.25% | Forecast: 2.25% | Actual: N/A
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, but markets will closely monitor forward guidance for clues on the future policy path. Any indication that inflation risks remain persistent could support NZD and push yields higher. A more cautious tone reflecting slowing domestic growth or weaker external demand may reinforce expectations for eventual policy easing later in the year.
Wednesday, May 27 – 20:00
ECB Press Conference
Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Markets will closely watch ECB commentary for updated guidance on inflation risks, growth conditions, and the timing of potential future easing. Policymakers may face increasing pressure as Eurozone growth remains uneven while inflation gradually moderates. A hawkish tone could support the euro and lift European yields, while softer guidance may reinforce expectations for a more accommodative policy stance later in 2026.
Thursday, May 28 – 15:30
U.S. Core PCE Price Index (MoM & YoY) (Apr)
Previous:
• Core PCE MoM 0.3%
• Core PCE YoY 3.2%
Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Core PCE remains the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure and will likely be the most important release of the week. Markets will assess whether underlying inflation pressures continue easing following recent volatility in energy prices and supply-chain conditions.
A softer reading would strengthen confidence that disinflation remains on track, potentially supporting equities and increasing expectations for policy easing later this year. However, persistently elevated inflation particularly within services categories could push Treasury yields higher, support the dollar, and reinforce “higher-for-longer” policy expectations.
Thursday, May 28 – 15:30
U.S. GDP (QoQ) (Q1) – Preliminary
Previous: 2.0% | Forecast: 2.0% | Actual: N/A
The Q1 GDP update will offer a broader assessment of U.S. economic momentum amid tighter financial conditions and slowing global growth. Stable or stronger growth would reinforce the soft-landing narrative and support risk sentiment. A downside revision, however, could revive concerns that economic activity is losing momentum more rapidly than expected heading into the second half of the year.
Thursday, May 28 – 15:30
U.S. Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr) – Preliminary
Previous: 0.8% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Durable goods orders provide insight into business investment trends and broader industrial demand. Stronger orders would suggest corporate spending remains resilient despite elevated financing costs and economic uncertainty. Weakness in the report could reinforce concerns surrounding slowing manufacturing activity and softening capital expenditure trends.
Thursday, May 28 – 15:30
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Previous: 209K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Weekly jobless claims remain one of the most closely watched real-time indicators of labor market health. Stable claims would support the view that employment conditions remain orderly despite moderating growth. A meaningful increase could signal broader labor market softening and reinforce dovish repricing expectations across rates markets.
Thursday, May 28 – 17:00
U.S. New Home Sales (Apr)
Previous: 682K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
New home sales will help gauge the health of the U.S. housing sector amid elevated mortgage rates and affordability pressures. A rebound in sales would suggest housing demand remains relatively resilient despite tighter financial conditions. Continued weakness, however, may indicate that higher borrowing costs are increasingly weighing on construction activity and consumer demand.
Friday, May 29 – 15:00
German CPI (MoM) (May) – Preliminary
Previous: 0.6% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Germany’s preliminary inflation data will provide an early indication of broader Eurozone price trends heading into June. Softer inflation would reinforce the ECB’s disinflation narrative and support expectations for additional easing flexibility later this year. A hotter-than-expected print may revive concerns that European inflation remains more persistent than policymakers anticipated.
Friday, May 29 – 16:45
U.S. Chicago PMI (May)
Previous: 49.2 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Chicago PMI offers an important snapshot of regional manufacturing activity and business sentiment. A move back above the 50 expansion threshold would support optimism that industrial activity is stabilizing after months of uneven performance. Continued weakness, however, could reinforce concerns surrounding slowing manufacturing momentum and softer domestic demand.
Sunday, May 31 – 04:30
China Manufacturing PMI (May)
Previous: 50.3 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
China’s manufacturing PMI will be closely watched for signs that domestic demand and industrial activity are stabilizing after recent growth concerns and ongoing property-sector weakness. Stronger data could improve broader global risk sentiment and support commodity-linked assets. A weaker reading may reignite concerns over slowing Chinese demand and weigh on global growth expectations heading into June.
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