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Published: 13 October 2026,12:05
Daily Market Analysis New
*Elevated Treasury yields and rising energy costs have pressured high-valuation technology stocks, widening the gap with industrial and value shares.
*Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions have lifted crude prices, renewed inflation concerns and reinforced expectations for restrictive Fed policy.
*The November 3 midterms may keep risk appetite subdued, though geopolitical de-escalation or lower yields could support a Nasdaq recovery.
The Nasdaq has displayed notable recent weakness relative to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, highlighting a growing decoupling between growth-oriented technology stocks and more traditional industrial and value components of the market. While the Nasdaq had earlier benefited from sustained optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and megacap technology leadership, recent sessions have seen it underperform as elevated Treasury yields and rising energy costs weighed more heavily on high-valuation growth names.
This divergence reflects a broader market dynamic in which capital has concentrated in a narrow group of AI-linked leaders, leaving the rest of the equity landscape more vulnerable to macroeconomic headwinds. Higher interest rates have compressed valuations for longer-duration technology assets, while surging crude prices—driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—have raised inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of a more restrictive Federal Reserve policy path. Disruptions linked to the Iran conflict and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz have repeatedly lifted oil prices above key psychological levels, amplifying pressure on rate-sensitive growth stocks that dominate the Nasdaq.
Adding to the cautious backdrop is the approaching U.S. midterm election on November 3. Historical patterns indicate elevated volatility in the weeks leading up to midterms as markets price in potential shifts in congressional control. Prediction markets currently assign a significant probability to a Democratic sweep of both chambers, an outcome some strategists view as potentially introducing greater regulatory or fiscal uncertainty that could weigh on risk assets, particularly those tied to deregulation or large-scale infrastructure spending themes.
In the near term, the Nasdaq’s relative underperformance may persist if yields remain elevated and Middle East tensions continue to support higher energy prices. However, any de-escalation in the region or clearer resolution of election-related uncertainty could help restore broader risk appetite.
Nasdaq, H4:
The Nasdaq has fallen below short-term support at 30,550, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The breakdown signals a bearish shift in the near-term technical structure and suggests that selling pressure is gaining momentum.
Attention now turns to the next key support at 30,126.20. A firm defence of this level could help stabilize the index and provide the foundation for a technical rebound.
However, a decisive break and sustained close below 30,126.20 would signal a more significant deterioration in the broader market structure. Such a move could confirm a longer-term bearish trend reversal and trigger a deeper wave of selling. Conversely, a recovery above 30,550 would ease the immediate downside pressure and weaken the bearish outlook.
Resistance Levels: 30,760.00, 31,345.00
Support Levels: 30,126.20, 29,645.70
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