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Published: 13 October 2026,12:01
Daily Market Analysis New
*September’s minutes confirmed the unanimous 25-basis-point hike to 4.60%, citing stronger activity, higher oil prices and persistent inflation risks.
*Hawkish policy expectations underpin the AUD, but broader U.S. dollar strength and uncertain global risk sentiment continue to cap gains.
*Strong employment growth or lower unemployment could reinforce further RBA tightening expectations and lift the Australian dollar.
The Australian dollar remains sensitive to domestic monetary policy signals following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s September meeting minutes today. The minutes confirmed the Board’s unanimous decision to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60 percent, citing the materialisation of upside risks to inflation from stronger-than-expected activity data and elevated oil prices linked to geopolitical developments. Policymakers noted ongoing uncertainty around the neutral rate and acknowledged that the Australian dollar had depreciated modestly in trade-weighted terms since the prior meeting, while remaining above longer-run equilibrium estimates.
This communication has reinforced perceptions of a relatively restrictive policy bias in Australia compared with some peer central banks, providing a degree of underlying support for the Aussie. However, the currency continues to face headwinds from broader U.S. dollar strength and shifting global risk sentiment. Market participants are now turning their attention to Thursday’s September labour force survey, which is expected to show employment growth of around 15,000 to 20,000 and an unemployment rate holding near 4.6 percent. The report will be pivotal in assessing the degree of residual tightness in the labour market, a key concern for the RBA given its implications for wage and services inflation.
A stronger-than-anticipated jobs print, particularly if full-time employment rises solidly or unemployment declines, could strengthen expectations of further policy tightening and lend additional support to the Australian dollar. Overall, the combination of today’s minutes and Thursday’s employment data is likely to set the tone for AUD price action in the coming sessions, with volatility expected as markets refine their outlook for the RBA’s policy path into the remainder of the year.
AUD/USD, H4:
AUD/USD is showing early signs of a bullish trend reversal after breaking above its descending trendline. However, the pair remains capped below the key psychological resistance at 0.7000, leaving the emerging recovery unconfirmed.
A decisive break and sustained close above 0.7000 in the coming sessions would strengthen the bullish outlook, signal renewed buying momentum and confirm a more meaningful improvement in the pair’s technical structure.
Conversely, failure to maintain support above the previous low near 0.6940 would invalidate the emerging bullish setup. Such a move would indicate that sellers remain in control and could lead to a continuation of the prevailing downtrend.
Resistance Levels: 0.7000, 0.7070
Support Levels: 0.6913, 0.6833
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