Fed, BoE & Core PCE Headline a Crucial Week

The Week Ahead: Week of July 27, 2026 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
Markets head into one of the most important weeks of the quarter as investors prepare for policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, alongside key U.S. growth and inflation data that could reshape expectations for interest rates through the second half of 2026.

Sentiment also remains influenced by this week’s macro developments. The United States and European Union reached a new trade agreement that eased concerns over escalating tariff tensions, helping support global risk appetite. Meanwhile, recent U.S. economic releases continued to point toward a resilient economy, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve can afford to remain patient before considering further policy easing. Investors will therefore scrutinize Chair Powell’s guidance for any shift in the Fed’s outlook on inflation and growth.

Geopolitically, markets continue monitoring developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and ongoing tensions in the Middle East, although recent headlines have had a more limited impact on risk sentiment compared with earlier months. Together with month-end portfolio rebalancing flows, the combination of central bank meetings, inflation data, and GDP figures could generate heightened volatility across currencies, bonds, equities, gold, and oil.

Monday, July 27 – 15:30

U.S. Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jun) – Preliminary

Previous: -4.5% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Durable Goods Orders provide an early indication of business investment and manufacturing demand. After May’s sharp decline, markets will look for signs of stabilization in capital spending. A stronger-than-expected rebound would reinforce confidence that U.S. business activity remains resilient despite elevated borrowing costs, supporting the dollar and Treasury yields. Another weak reading could revive concerns over slowing industrial momentum and weigh on growth expectations.

Tuesday, July 28 – 17:00

U.S. CB Consumer Confidence (Jul)

Previous: 91.2 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Consumer confidence offers insight into household sentiment and future spending intentions. With consumer spending remaining the backbone of U.S. economic growth, another resilient reading would reinforce expectations that domestic demand remains healthy. A weaker-than-expected result could raise concerns that elevated interest rates and persistent inflation are beginning to weigh more heavily on consumers, potentially supporting defensive assets.

Wednesday, July 29 – 21:00

U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

Previous: 3.75% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The Federal Reserve meeting will be the week’s primary market event. While policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, investors will focus on Chair Powell’s assessment of inflation, labor market conditions, and whether recent economic resilience warrants keeping policy restrictive for longer. Any indication that rate cuts could be delayed would likely strengthen the U.S. dollar and lift Treasury yields, while a more dovish tone could support equities, gold, and other risk-sensitive assets.

Thursday, July 30 – 09:00

Germany GDP (QoQ) (Q2) – Preliminary

Previous: 0.3% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Germany’s preliminary second-quarter GDP report will provide an important update on the health of Europe’s largest economy. Stronger growth would improve confidence in the Eurozone recovery and support the euro. Conversely, weaker-than-expected data would reinforce concerns over sluggish regional activity and could increase expectations for additional ECB policy accommodation.

Thursday, July 30 – 14:00

Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (Jul)

Previous: 3.75% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The Bank of England is expected to keep policy restrictive as officials continue balancing moderating inflation against slowing economic growth. Markets will pay close attention to the voting split and accompanying guidance for clues on the timing of future rate cuts. A more hawkish stance could support GBP, while dovish signals may increase expectations for policy easing later this year.

Thursday, July 30 – 15:00

German CPI (MoM) (Jul) – Preliminary

Previous: -0.3% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Germany’s preliminary inflation reading serves as one of the earliest indicators of broader Eurozone price pressures. A stronger inflation print could reduce expectations for additional ECB easing and provide support for the euro. Softer inflation would reinforce the ongoing disinflation trend across Europe.

Thursday, July 30 – 15:30

U.S. Core PCE Price Index (MoM & YoY) (Jun)

Previous: MoM 0.3% | YoY 3.4%

Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Core PCE remains the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying inflation and will be closely watched following the FOMC decision. Markets will assess both monthly inflation momentum and the annual trend to determine whether price pressures continue easing. A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce higher-for-longer interest rate expectations and support the dollar, while softer inflation would strengthen expectations for eventual Fed easing and support risk assets.

Thursday, July 30 – 15:30

U.S. GDP (QoQ) (Q2) – Preliminary

Previous: 2.1% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The preliminary second-quarter GDP report will provide the most comprehensive assessment of U.S. economic performance. Solid growth would reinforce confidence that the economy continues to outperform despite restrictive monetary policy, potentially supporting the dollar and equities. A disappointing reading could revive recession concerns and strengthen expectations for future Fed rate cuts.

Friday, July 31 – 04:30

China Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

Previous: 50.3 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

China’s official Manufacturing PMI will offer an early indication of factory activity and domestic demand. A reading above 50 would signal continued expansion and support commodity-linked currencies and broader risk sentiment. A weaker result could renew concerns over China’s recovery and weigh on industrial commodities and Asian equities.

Friday, July 31 – 12:00

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Jul) – Preliminary

Previous: 2.8% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The preliminary Eurozone inflation report will be closely monitored following Germany’s CPI release. Markets will assess whether inflation continues moving toward the ECB’s target or remains sticky. A higher-than-expected reading could temper expectations for additional ECB easing, while softer inflation would reinforce the case for a more accommodative policy path.

Friday, July 31 – 16:45

U.S. Chicago PMI (Jul)

Previous: 56.7 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Chicago PMI provides a timely snapshot of manufacturing and business activity heading into August. Continued expansion would reinforce signs that U.S. economic momentum remains intact despite elevated interest rates. A weaker reading could increase concerns over slowing industrial activity and modestly pressure the dollar while supporting expectations for future monetary easing.