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Published: 20 July 2026,10:12
Daily Market Analysis New
*The US dollar rebounds as higher oil prices revive inflation concerns.
*Softer US CPI and PPI data continue to limit stronger dollar gains.
*Rising Treasury yields reduce the appeal of non-yielding gold.
*Markets await the ECB policy decision for further interest-rate guidance.
The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, edged higher as rising oil prices revived concerns that inflation could remain elevated.
Renewed US–Iran tensions have supported energy prices and increased fears that higher fuel costs could feed into broader inflation. This has encouraged traders to reassess whether the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates higher for longer, supporting US Treasury yields and the dollar.
However, the dollar’s upside remains limited after recent US CPI and PPI reports came in weaker than expected. The softer inflation data previously reduced expectations of further monetary tightening, leaving the dollar caught between easing price pressures and renewed oil-driven inflation risks.
Gold prices moved lower as rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar reduced demand for non-yielding bullion. Although geopolitical tensions normally support safe-haven demand, investors are currently focusing more on the possibility that higher oil prices could keep global monetary policy restrictive.
Markets are also monitoring the policy outlooks of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Attention will turn to the ECB’s monetary-policy decision later this week for further guidance on inflation and interest rates.
Moving forward, the outlook for the US dollar and gold will depend on oil prices, Treasury yields, central-bank expectations, and developments in the US–Iran conflict.
Technical Analysis
GOLD, H4:
Gold prices are trading higher after rebounding from the 3,970.00 support level, with a bullish engulfing pattern forming on the H1 chart, signaling improving short-term buying interest.
Momentum indicators are also turning more constructive. The MACD is showing increasing bullish momentum, while the RSI at 55 remains above the midline, suggesting that gold may extend its gains in the near term.
If bullish momentum persists, gold could advance toward the next resistance level at 4,055.00, followed by 4,125.00 if upside momentum strengthens.
However, if buying pressure fails to sustain, gold may retrace and retest the 3,970.00 support level, with further downside toward 3,900.00 if selling pressure resumes.
Resistance Levels: 4055.00, 4125.00
Support Levels: 3970.00, 3900.00
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