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Published: 9 June 2026,06:42
Daily Market Analysis New
*The US dollar remains supported by strong US economic data, rising Treasury yields, and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer.
*Gold remains under pressure as higher yields and a stronger dollar outweigh traditional safe-haven demand, despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.
The US dollar remains firmly supported while gold continues to face downside pressure as markets increasingly reprice Federal Reserve expectations following stronger-than-expected US economic data. The latest Nonfarm Payrolls report reinforced confidence in the resilience of the US economy, prompting investors to scale back expectations for near-term rate cuts and increasingly consider the possibility of an additional Fed rate hike later this year. This shift has pushed Treasury yields toward multi-week highs, with the 10-year yield holding above 4.5%, providing continued support for the greenback while reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.
At the same time, developments in the Middle East remain a key market focus. Although Iran and Israel have temporarily halted direct attacks following diplomatic efforts by the United States, negotiations remain fragile and uncertainty surrounding a lasting peace agreement continues to linger. While geopolitical tensions would normally support safe-haven demand for gold, the market has increasingly interpreted the conflict as an inflationary event rather than a traditional risk-off catalyst. Concerns over potential disruptions to regional energy supplies and the Strait of Hormuz have kept oil prices elevated, raising fears that inflation pressures could remain persistent and forcing investors to reassess expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
This dynamic has created a challenging environment for gold. Rising oil prices have strengthened the narrative of higher-for-longer interest rates, supporting both Treasury yields and the US dollar while weighing on bullion. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for international buyers, while higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal. As a result, gold recently fell to its lowest level in more than two months despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, highlighting how monetary policy expectations have become a more dominant driver than safe-haven demand.
Looking ahead, market attention is firmly focused on upcoming US CPI and PPI data, which could provide the next major catalyst for both the dollar and gold. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading would reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy, potentially driving Treasury yields and the dollar higher while adding further pressure on gold. Conversely, softer inflation data could ease some of the recent hawkish repricing, allowing the dollar to retreat and providing gold with an opportunity to stabilize. Until then, the combination of resilient US economic data, elevated yields, persistent inflation concerns, and lingering geopolitical uncertainty continues to favor a bullish outlook for the US dollar while keeping gold vulnerable to further downside pressure.
Technical Analysis
DXY, H4:
The dollar index is trading higher, currently testing the 100.10 resistance level, a key near-term breakout zone.
A confirmed breakout above 100.10 could extend gains toward the next resistance at 100.65, reinforcing the bullish trend.
However, momentum indicators are showing signs of exhaustion. The MACD is displaying diminishing bullish momentum, while the RSI at 71 has entered overbought territory, suggesting an increased risk of a near-term technical correction.
If bullish momentum begins to fade, the index may retrace toward the 99.50 support level, with further downside toward 98.90 if selling pressure intensifies.
Resistance Levels: 100.10, 100.65
Support Levels: 99.50, 98.90
Gold, H4:
Gold prices are trading lower after a breakdown below the 4,400.00 support level, confirming a bearish shift in short-term market structure.
Momentum remains weak, with the MACD strengthening to the downside and the RSI at 30 remaining in oversold territory, indicating persistent selling pressure despite increasingly stretched conditions.
If bearish momentum continues, gold could extend losses toward the next support at 4,270.00, with further downside toward 4,095.00 if selling pressure accelerates.
However, if selling pressure begins to ease, a technical rebound may occur, with prices likely to retest the 4,400.00 resistance level, followed by 4,495.00 if recovery strengthens.
Resistance Levels: 4400.00, 4495.00
Support Levels: 4270.00, 4095.00
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