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24 May 2024,06:58

Weekly Outlook

Surprise or Steady? April’s Core PCE Data to Set Market Tone

24 May 2024, 06:58

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Tuesday, 28 May 2024, 03:30 – Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

Australian retail sales experienced a greater decline than anticipated in the March quarter, dropping by 0.4% compared to the expected 0.2% decrease. This marked the lowest annual retail sales growth since 2021, excluding pandemic-related impacts. The primary factors behind this decline were higher mortgage rates and reduced real incomes, which diminished consumers’ purchasing ability. With mounting cost of living pressures, it is anticipated that consumer spending will further decline in the coming months.

Tuesday, 28 May 2024, 16:00 – US CB Consumer Confidence (May)

In April, the Conference Board released its CB Consumer Confidence report, revealing a decline in consumer confidence from 103.1 (revised from 104.7) in March to 97.0 in April, against an analyst consensus of 104. This marked the lowest level since July 2022. Consumers became less optimistic about the current market situation and more worried about future business conditions, job availability, and income. Additionally, persistent U.S. inflation, which continues to impact the cost of living, is likely to keep the consumer confidence subdued.

Thursday, 30 May 2024, 14:30 – US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

The U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate slowed to an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of this year, marking a significant deceleration from the 3.4 percent growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. This was the slowest pace since the second quarter of 2022. The previous reading was based on incomplete data and is subject to revision, with the forthcoming data likely to confirm a similarly weak tone.

Friday, 31 May 2024, 14:30 – US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Apr)

In March, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.8% from a year ago, remaining unchanged from February and slightly higher than the expected 2.6%. With inflation remaining sticky, the cost of living is anticipated to rise further and with that, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation is likely to remain stubborn in April and may even gain momentum.

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