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Published: 11 November 2026,07:13
Daily Market Analysis New
*The BoE raised rates by 25bps to 4.00%, its first hike in over three years, with an 8–1 vote, reinforcing a hawkish outlook for the pound.
*UK CPI rose to 3.5%, with inflation potentially reaching 5% by mid-next year, while resilient GDP growth further supports tighter monetary policy.
*Hotter inflation could fuel expectations of further rate hikes and extend sterling gains, while softer data may trigger a pullback.
The pound sterling has shown relative strength following the Bank of England’s decision last week to raise the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4 percent, its first increase in more than three years. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 in favour of the move, with one member preferring a larger 50 basis point hike, reflecting heightened concern over persistent inflationary pressures. The decision has provided a firmer policy anchor for sterling, supporting the currency against several G10 peers as markets adjust to a more restrictive stance.
Recent UK economic data has reinforced the case for tighter policy. CPI inflation rose to 3.5 percent in September, driven largely by elevated energy prices linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict, and the Bank now projects inflation could approach 5 percent by the middle of next year. At the same time, GDP growth has proven more resilient than earlier forecasts, with activity holding up better than expected despite higher costs. These developments have limited the scope for a more dovish interpretation of the rate decision and helped sustain interest in the pound.
Looking ahead, the currency’s near-term direction will depend heavily on upcoming data releases, particularly the October CPI reading. A hotter-than-expected inflation print would strengthen expectations of further rate increases and provide additional support for sterling. Conversely, softer data could temper the hawkish narrative and lead to some retracement of recent gains. Relative interest rate differentials with the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank will also remain important, as will any shifts in risk sentiment tied to global energy markets. Overall, the recent rate hike has established a constructive floor for the pound, though sustained strength will require confirmation from the data that inflation pressures remain elevated.
Technical Analysis
EUR/GBP, H4:
EUR/GBP remains within a broader long-term downtrend, although the latest price action points to an emerging recovery. After consolidating for a week near its lowest level since March 2025, the pair has broken above the upper boundary of the range, signalling renewed buying interest.
Momentum indicators reinforce the improving technical outlook. The MACD has crossed above the zero line, confirming a shift toward positive momentum, while the Relative Strength Index is advancing toward overbought territory, reflecting strengthening demand.
The near-term bias has turned bullish, provided EUR/GBP holds above the former consolidation range, which may now serve as support. However, with the RSI approaching overbought levels, a temporary pullback cannot be ruled out. A broader trend reversal would require the pair to sustain the breakout and begin forming a sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
Resistance Levels: 0.8390, 0.8450
Support Levels: 0.8325, 0.8260
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