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Published: 10 July 2026,07:21
Daily Market Analysis New
*Oil prices stabilised after a volatile week, with Brent around $76 and WTI near $72, while both benchmarks remain on track for weekly gains of 5–6%.
*The US-Iran conflict remains the primary market driver, as renewed military strikes and retaliation continue to raise concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies.
*Prices pulled back from recent highs after investors were reassured that the US avoided targeting Iranian energy infrastructure and President Trump indicated Iran remained interested in negotiations, reducing fears of an immediate full-scale conflict.
Crude oil prices remained volatile but stabilised after surrendering part of this week’s sharp rally, with Brent crude trading around $76 per barrel and WTI near $72, while both benchmarks remained on track for weekly gains of approximately 5–6%. The market continues to be dominated by developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict, after Washington launched a second consecutive wave of airstrikes targeting roughly 90 Iranian military assets in response to attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated with strikes against US military facilities across the Gulf, further undermining the already fragile ceasefire.
Despite the renewed military escalation, oil prices pulled back as investors found reassurance that the United States avoided directly targeting Iranian energy infrastructure and that crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz have not yet experienced significant disruptions. President Donald Trump also suggested Iran was seeking to resume negotiations and stated that he did not expect a return to full-scale war, encouraging markets to reduce some of the geopolitical risk premium built into crude prices earlier this week.
Nevertheless, underlying supply risks remain elevated. The Strait of Hormuz continues to handle around 20% of global seaborne oil and gas shipments, while tanker traffic remains below pre-conflict levels due to heightened security concerns and increased insurance costs. Market participants are closely monitoring shipping activity, as any further attacks on commercial vessels or direct disruption to Gulf energy exports could trigger another sharp surge in crude prices. Analysts also note that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve remains near its lowest level in decades, reducing policymakers’ flexibility to offset any prolonged supply shock.
From a macroeconomic perspective, falling oil prices have temporarily eased inflation concerns, but resilient US labour market data and stronger-than-expected Chinese producer price inflation continue to suggest that global energy demand remains relatively supported. Looking ahead, crude oil is expected to remain highly headline-driven. While continued diplomatic efforts could push Brent back toward the mid-$70 range, any escalation involving the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf energy infrastructure could quickly lift Brent back toward $80 per barrel or higher, reviving inflation concerns and influencing global central bank policy expectations.
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil, H4:
Crude oil remains in a broader downtrend although recent price action suggests selling pressure has eased following the rebound from the 66.70 support level. After failing to sustain its rally above 76.20, WTI has retreated toward the middle of its recent trading range and is currently consolidating around 72.25. While buyers have managed to defend higher lows in the short term, the inability to reclaim the 76.20 resistance keeps the broader bearish structure intact.
Momentum indicators point to a loss of bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has pulled back to around 54 after retreating from overbought territory and has crossed below its moving average, suggesting buying pressure is fading despite remaining above the neutral 50 level. Meanwhile, the MACD has completed a bearish crossover above the zero line, with the histogram turning negative, indicating that upside momentum is weakening and increasing the likelihood of further consolidation or a corrective pullback.Overall, the short-term outlook remains cautiously bearish as crude oil struggles to build on its recent rebound while momentum indicators continue to weaken.
Resistance Levels: 76.20, 86.90
Support Levels: 66.70, 56.65
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