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Published: 12 June 2026,06:06
Daily Market Analysis New
*Global risk sentiment improves after Trump signals progress toward a U.S.–Iran agreement
*Potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz reduces supply disruption concerns
*Oil prices drop sharply as traders unwind geopolitical risk premium
Global risk sentiment improved sharply while crude oil prices tumbled after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the United States had effectively ended the conflict with Iran and was moving toward a final agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump described the potential agreement as a “great settlement” and expressed confidence that both sides were close to finalizing a deal. The prospect of reopening one of the world’s most important energy corridors immediately improved market sentiment, as investors reduced expectations of prolonged supply disruptions and broader inflationary pressure.
However, market participants remain cautious as Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that Tehran has not yet made a final decision on any proposed agreement. While negotiations appear to be moving in a more positive direction, official confirmation from Iran remains a key missing piece before markets can fully price in a sustained de-escalation.
Crude oil prices fell sharply, dropping more than 4% after Trump’s comments increased expectations that a resolution between the United States and Iran may be approaching. The decline reflected a rapid unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium that had previously supported oil prices during the escalation phase.
Just days earlier, crude oil had surged following U.S. military operations against Iran after the downing of a U.S. helicopter. At that time, investors feared that heightened tensions could prolong the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt global energy supplies.
The latest diplomatic developments have now shifted market sentiment significantly. Investors are increasingly pricing in the possibility that energy flows could gradually normalize if a formal agreement is reached. As a result, traders have started to remove part of the supply disruption premium from crude prices.
Overall, oil markets remain highly sensitive to developments between Washington and Tehran. While optimism over a potential agreement has pressured crude prices lower, any delay in confirmation or rejection from Iran could quickly revive supply concerns and trigger renewed volatility.
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil, H4:
Crude oil prices are trading lower, currently testing the 90.40 support level, which serves as a key near-term floor.
Momentum remains bearish, with the MACD strengthening to the downside and the RSI at 38 below the midline, indicating continued selling pressure and downside risk.
A confirmed breakdown below 90.40 could extend losses toward the next support at 86.50, reinforcing the bearish outlook in the near term.
However, if selling pressure begins to fade, a technical rebound may occur, with prices likely to retest the 94.20 resistance level, followed by higher levels if recovery momentum strengthens.
Resistance Levels: 89.90, 94.20
Support Levels: 85.90, 81.40
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