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Published: 22 May 2026,06:28
Daily Market Analysis New
*Oil prices retreat as markets anticipate potential U.S.–Iran agreement
*Trump signals possible extension for further negotiations
*Strait of Hormuz remains key risk for global energy markets
*Failure of talks could trigger major market volatility
Crude oil prices retreated slightly as market participants increasingly expect the United States and Iran may be moving closer toward a potential agreement ahead of the looming negotiation deadline.
Despite the recent pullback in oil prices, the broader market remains highly cautious as discussions between both parties are still ongoing. Donald Trump warned that the United States could resume military action if Iran fails to cooperate in negotiations, although he also suggested that additional time may be granted to allow further discussions to continue.
At this stage, the market reaction appears to be driven more by expectations and optimism surrounding diplomacy rather than confirmed progress toward a final agreement. Investors remain in a wait-and-see mode as they monitor developments closely for clearer direction from upcoming U.S.–Iran discussions.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the central focus for global energy markets. Continued disruption to shipping activity through the waterway has already tightened supply conditions and increased volatility across the oil market.
According to the International Energy Agency, the global oil market could enter a “red zone” this summer if the Strait of Hormuz fails to reopen, highlighting the significant risks associated with prolonged supply disruptions.
Overall, while oil prices have eased on hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough, uncertainty remains extremely elevated. Any failure to achieve progress in negotiations could rapidly reignite fears of supply disruptions and trigger significant volatility across global financial and energy markets.
Technical Analysis
CL-Oil, H4:
Crude oil prices are trading lower, currently testing the 97.60 support level, which serves as a key near-term pivot.
Momentum indicators remain bearish, with the MACD strengthening to the downside and the RSI at 43 below the midline, suggesting continued downside pressure.
A confirmed break below 97.60 could extend losses toward the next support at 90.90.
However, if bearish momentum begins to fade, crude oil may rebound and retest the 104.75 resistance level, followed by 109.55 if momentum improves.
Resistance Levels: 104.75, 109.55
Support Levels: 97.60, 90.90
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