Oil Nears $100 as US–Iran Conflict Raises Supply Disruption Risks
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Oil Nears $100 as US–Iran Conflict Raises Supply Disruption Risks         

Published: 9 September 2026,08:27

Published: 9 September 2026,08:27

Daily Market Analysis New

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Key Takeaways:

*Crude oil extended its rally to the highest level in nearly two months.

*Iran launched fresh attacks on US military assets following US strikes on Iranian vessels.

*Higher oil prices are also increasing inflation risks and strengthening expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy.

Market Summary:

Crude oil continued to extend its gains as renewed escalation between the United States and Iran increased concerns over prolonged supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Iran launched ballistic missiles toward a US military base in Jordan and attacked vessels around the Strait of Hormuz following recent US strikes on Iranian oil tankers. The latest exchange marks another escalation in the ongoing conflict, with little evidence of an immediate diplomatic breakthrough.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the key market concern. Shipping activity through the waterway continues to operate well below normal levels, with only six commodity vessels recorded passing through on Tuesday compared with a recent 10-day average of 12.

As a result, Brent crude has moved close to the psychologically important $100-per-barrel level, while investors continue to price a significant geopolitical risk premium into energy markets.

The rise in oil prices also carries broader macroeconomic implications. A prolonged period of elevated energy prices could increase consumer inflation and complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, particularly as markets already debate whether another rate hike may be required.

For now, crude oil maintains a bullish fundamental bias as long as tensions remain elevated and Hormuz shipping remains disrupted. However, any credible signs of diplomatic progress or improved shipping flows could trigger a sharp correction as geopolitical risk premiums unwind.

Technical Analysis 

Crude oil market dashboard showing a bullish signal on 9 Sep 2026 with price chart, RSI and MACD indicators.

CL-Oil, H4

Crude oil prices are trading higher, currently testing the 94.05 resistance level, which acts as a key near-term breakout zone.

Momentum indicators remain supportive, with the MACD showing increasing bullish momentum and the RSI at 61 staying above the midline, suggesting that buyers still maintain short-term control.

If bullish momentum persists, a confirmed breakout above 94.05 could extend gains toward the next resistance level at 97.75.

However, if bullish momentum fails to sustain, crude oil may enter a consolidation phase and retrace toward the 88.85 support level, followed by 84.60 if selling pressure increases.

Resistance level: 94.05, 97.75

Support level: 88.85, 84.60

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