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Published: 4 June 2026,06:12
Daily Market Analysis New
*U.S.–Iran tensions intensify as renewed military actions weaken ceasefire prospects
*Strait of Hormuz disruption remains the key driver for crude oil prices
*Higher energy prices raise global inflation risks and support tighter policy expectations
Global market sentiment remained cautious as tensions between the United States and Iran continued to escalate, with the conflict entering its 96th day. Both sides reported fresh military actions, while ceasefire negotiations showed little sign of meaningful progress, reducing hopes for a near-term peace agreement.
The United States reportedly launched military operations targeting Iran’s Qeshm Island, while Washington maintained that the actions were defensive in nature. The renewed hostilities have further complicated diplomatic efforts and increased concerns that the conflict could continue for an extended period.
Against this backdrop, crude oil prices extended their gains as markets remained focused on the risk of prolonged disruption to shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway remains one of the world’s most important energy corridors, and continued instability has kept supply concerns elevated.
Although crude oil prices stabilized after three consecutive days of gains, the broader trend remains supported by persistent uncertainty surrounding Middle East energy flows. Traders continue to price in a significant geopolitical risk premium, especially as negotiations remain stalled and the risk of further escalation remains high.
Higher oil prices are also contributing to renewed inflation concerns globally. Rising energy costs could increase pressure on consumers and businesses while complicating the outlook for major central banks. As a result, policymakers may be forced to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer, especially if supply disruption risks continue to support elevated crude prices.
Overall, crude oil remains highly sensitive to developments in the U.S.–Iran conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz continuing to act as the dominant catalyst for market direction.
Technical Analysis
CL-Oil, H4:
Crude oil prices are trading higher, currently testing the 96.15 resistance level, which acts as a key breakout zone.
A confirmed move above 96.15 could extend gains toward the next resistance at 100.75, reinforcing bullish continuation.
However, momentum indicators are becoming less supportive. The MACD is showing increasing bearish pressure, while the RSI at 50 is retreating from higher levels, suggesting a potential near-term technical correction.
If bullish momentum fails to sustain, prices may retest the 90.40 support level, with further downside toward 85.75 if selling pressure intensifies.
Resistance Levels: 96.15, 100.75
Support Levels: 90.40, 85.75
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