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Published: 18 September 2026,09:53
Daily Market Analysis New
*Renewed fighting between Houthi forces and Saudi Arabia, including attacks damaging Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, has intensified concerns over regional supply disruptions and kept Brent and WTI prices elevated.
*Saudi Arabia is pursuing alternative export routes, including ship-to-ship transfers and loadings via Oman, while accelerating pipeline repairs.
*Continued progress on repairs and alternative routing could encourage consolidation at elevated levels, while further attacks or prolonged outages could quickly revive supply fears and drive crude prices higher.
Middle East geopolitical tensions remain elevated and have intensified with the emergence of a more active battle front between Houthi forces and Saudi Arabia. Recent exchanges of attacks, including strikes that damaged Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West pipeline, have heightened concerns over crude oil supply disruptions. The pipeline has served as a vital alternative export route amid ongoing constraints through the Strait of Hormuz, and its temporary shutdown initially threatened a meaningful portion of global supply, helping to keep both Brent and WTI crude trading at elevated levels.
Despite the continued tightness in the regional security situation, market participants are increasingly viewing the immediate supply threat as less severe than initially feared. Saudi Arabia has moved quickly to mitigate the impact by pursuing alternative export channels, including ship-to-ship transfers and loadings via Oman, while accelerating repairs to the damaged pipeline. Reports indicate that partial capacity could be restored within days, with fuller operations targeted over a period of several weeks. These developments have contributed to a partial unwinding of the sharpest risk premiums, allowing oil prices to ease modestly from recent peaks even as they remain well supported above key psychological thresholds.
In the near term, crude markets are likely to stay sensitive to further developments on the ground. Sustained progress on pipeline restoration and alternative routing could cap upside pressure and support a period of consolidation at elevated levels. However, any escalation that prolongs outages or expands the conflict would rapidly reintroduce supply fears and push prices higher. Traders will continue to monitor repair timelines, Saudi export volumes, and broader regional security dynamics as the primary drivers of price action in the sessions ahead.
Brent crude has broken below its short-term uptrend structure, suggesting that the recent bullish momentum has weakened and that the market could enter a period of technical retracement from its recent peak near the $110.00 mark. The short-term breakdown indicates that some profit-taking and selling pressure may emerge following the strong upward move.
Despite the anticipated pullback, Brent continues to trade within its broader uptrend trajectory, keeping the longer-term bullish structure intact for now. The key level to watch is the psychological support near $100.00, which is likely to play an important role in determining whether the broader uptrend can be maintained.
Should Brent hold above the $100.00 psychological support, the broader uptrend trajectory would remain intact and the current weakness could be viewed as a technical correction within the larger bullish structure. Conversely, a decisive break below $100.00 would weaken the broader trend and could signal a deeper correction.
Resistance Levels: 109.60, 120.60
Support Levels: 98.97, 87.50
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