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Published: 25 August 2026,06:57
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*Oil stabilises after a sharp pullback: Brent remains around $92 and WTI near $85 after prices fell more than 2% as markets reduced some geopolitical premium.
*Tougher U.S. secondary sanctions against Iran lowered expectations of an imminent military escalation, weighing on crude prices.
*Hormuz remains the biggest upside risk: The tanker incident near Oman and Iran’s warnings keep the threat to global oil shipping elevated.
Oil remains fundamentally supported by the ongoing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, but prices pulled back sharply after last week’s rally. Brent settled around $92 and WTI around $85 after both contracts fell more than 2% on Monday. The immediate reason was that the U.S. sanctions announcement appeared to represent a longer-term economic pressure campaign rather than an immediate physical supply shock. Markets therefore took some geopolitical premium out of crude after Washington emphasized financial and economic measures instead of immediate military escalation.
However, the downside remains limited by the continuing threat to physical supply. A tanker was struck and disabled near Oman on Tuesday, while Iran has threatened action against vessels it says violated its rules for crossing the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway normally handles cargo equivalent to roughly 20% of global oil consumption, meaning any significant deterioration in shipping could quickly reintroduce a substantial geopolitical premium. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve also fell by around 3.7 million barrels to 289.7 million barrels, its lowest level since 1982, leaving less of a domestic buffer against prolonged disruptions.
The key issue now is whether U.S. sanctions actually reduce Iranian exports or instead provoke retaliation. Washington has sanctioned roughly 60 entities connected to Iran’s oil and shadow-fleet networks and is threatening secondary sanctions against countries continuing to trade with Tehran. If China or other major Iranian oil buyers come under stronger pressure, physical Iranian exports could fall further. But if diplomacy improves and Hormuz traffic gradually normalises, the large geopolitical premium could unwind quickly. Therefore, oil remains structurally bullish but highly volatile, with the next major directional catalyst likely to come from actual changes in Hormuz shipping flows rather than the sanctions headlines alone.
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil, H4:
Crude oil remains in a broadly constructive recovery phase after breaking above the descending trendline and reclaiming the 80.80 support zone. The rebound from the 74.95 area pushed price toward the 87.60 resistance level, although buyers have so far struggled to secure a sustained breakout above this barrier.
The latest price action shows a modest pullback from the recent highs, with crude currently hovering around 84.95. The 84.25 area has emerged as an important near-term support, while holding above this zone would keep the recent recovery structure intact. A deeper correction could bring 80.81 back into focus, where previous consolidation may provide stronger demand.
Momentum has turned more cautious. RSI has slipped below the neutral 50 level, suggesting that buying pressure has weakened, while MACD remains positive in absolute terms but has produced a bearish crossover with a declining histogram. This indicates that upside momentum is fading and that further consolidation may be needed before another attempt higher.
Resistance Levels: 87.60, 93.40
Support Levels: 80.80, 74.95
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