Inflation Takes the Wheel: Brace for Impact!

Monday, 15th April 2024, 14:30 – US Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

According to the US Census Bureau, retail sales in the US rose by 0.6% on monthly basis in February. This reading followed a 1.1% decline registered in the initial month of the year, amounting to $696.7 billion, and fell below the anticipated 0.8% increase. The slight uptick in February suggests a slowdown in consumer spending growth at the start of 2024. Despite higher inflation, the market anticipates that the economy will remain robust but may gradually cool down, with consumer spending staying resilient.

Tuesday, 16th April 2024, 08:00 – UK Unemployment Rate (Feb)

In January, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9% from December’s 3.8%, while wage growth slowed in the UK labor market, signaling weaknesses consistent with a broader economic slowdown. Employers scaled back hiring efforts, resulting in a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 43,000 advertised vacancies to 908,000. This suggests that the recession’s impact in the latter half of 2023 was slightly more pronounced in the labor market than initially thought. Nevertheless, recent surveys show UK businesses gaining confidence in the economic outlook and preparing to raise prices. Consequently, there’s an expectation for the economy and labor market to gradually recover or at least stabilize, without further deterioration.

Tuesday, 16th April 2024, 14:30 – Canada CPI (YoY) (Mar)

In Feb, Canada experienced an unexpected slowdown in its annual inflation rate, dropping to 2.8% in February, below the anticipated 3.1%. Statistics Canada reported on Tuesday that factors contributing to this deceleration included reduced prices for groceries, as well as decreased costs for cellular and internet services. While the economic slowdown is projected to persist, market analysts anticipate that forthcoming data will reflect the ongoing economic deceleration.

Wednesday, 17th April 2024, 08:00 – UK CPI (YoY) (Mar)

In February, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United Kingdom (UK) rose by 3.4% compared to the previous year, marking a slowdown from the 4.0% increase recorded in January. The largest downward contributions to the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) were observed in the categories of food, as well as restaurants and cafes. As the UK economy cools, investors are anticipating a continued decrease in inflation during the spring months. This expectation is fueled by the notable decline in natural gas prices since last year and a moderation in the upward trajectory of food prices.