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Published: 29 October 2026,11:07
Daily Market Analysis New
*Gold posted modest gains after recovering above the psychological $4,000 level, supported by technical buying, a softer US dollar, and reduced near-term rate-hike expectations following the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady.
*Continued gold accumulation by the People’s Bank of China is helping limit downside pressure, although elevated oil prices and firm Treasury yields remain potential headwinds.
*Sustained dollar weakness could drive gold toward $4,100 and beyond, while stronger US data or renewed hawkish Fed expectations may push prices back toward $4,000 support or lower.
Gold posted modest gains in recent sessions and reclaimed the key psychological $4,000 level after briefly trading below it. The recovery reflects a combination of technical support at the round number, a degree of relief following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady, and ongoing physical demand. Buyers stepped in near the $4,000 threshold, treating the level as an attractive entry point after the metal’s earlier correction, while a modest softening in the US dollar and some easing in short-term rate expectations provided additional support.
Central bank purchasing, notably continued accumulation by the People’s Bank of China, has underpinned the market, helping to limit downside even as elevated oil prices and firm Treasury yields had previously weighed on sentiment. The Fed’s measured tone after the hold, which markets interpreted as slightly less hawkish than some had anticipated, contributed to a temporary reduction in upward pressure on real yields and the dollar, both of which typically compete with non-yielding gold.
In the near term, gold’s direction will remain closely tied to movements in the US dollar and Treasury yields, as well as developments in energy markets. A sustained period of dollar weakness or further moderation in rate-hike expectations could allow the metal to challenge higher levels toward $4,100 and beyond. Conversely, any renewed strength in the dollar driven by firmer data or a more hawkish reinterpretation of Fed guidance risks pushing prices back toward the $4,000 support zone or lower. While structural demand from official sector buyers continues to provide a floor, the immediate outlook is likely to feature range-bound trading with volatility around key economic releases until clearer signals on the policy path emerge.
Technical Analysis
XAUUSD, H4:
Gold remains within its broader long-term downtrend, having recently fallen to its lowest level since July. However, the metal broke above its recent consolidation range in the previous session, providing an early signal of a potential bullish reversal. The recovery now faces a critical test near the $4,075 resistance level, which will be key in determining whether the latest rebound can gain further traction.
A decisive break above $4,075 would strengthen the bullish bias and provide further evidence that the prevailing bearish momentum is easing. Conversely, failure to overcome this resistance could indicate that the rebound is merely a technical recovery, leaving gold vulnerable to a resumption of its broader downtrend.
Resistance Levels:4100.00, 4218.90
Support Levels:3945.50, 3780.00
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