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Published: 8 May 2026,06:30
Daily Market Analysis New
*Gold is underpinned by geopolitical risk that the U.S.–Iran tensions, Strait of Hormuz uncertainty, persistent central bank buying, and expectations of eventual Fed easing.
*Rising crude prices fuel inflation fears supporting gold long-term, but also delay rate cuts and strengthen the USD in the short term, creating volatility.
*Gold is highly reactive to U.S. data, especially payrolls and inflation, as these directly shape Treasury yields and Fed policy expectations.
Gold fundamentals remain strongly supported by geopolitical uncertainty, shifting Federal Reserve expectations, persistent central bank demand, and ongoing macro volatility driven by oil and U.S. data releases. Renewed U.S.–Iran tensions and instability near the Strait of Hormuz have revived safe-haven demand, pushing investors back into gold. On May 7, gold briefly surged toward $4,735–$4,764/oz on easing risk sentiment and a softer USD, before profit-taking and uncertainty pulled it back. By early May 8, prices were again edging higher around $4,717–$4,723, reflecting continued sensitivity to geopolitical headlines and dollar fluctuations.
Oil remains a key transmission channel for gold, as rising crude prices from Middle East tensions increase inflation concerns and influence Treasury yields and Fed expectations. While gold benefits from safe-haven demand during conflict, higher oil-driven inflation can delay Fed rate cuts and strengthen the dollar, creating short-term headwinds. Markets are now highly focused on upcoming U.S. payroll and inflation data, as weaker labor conditions would likely push yields lower and support gold, while stronger data could reinforce a hawkish Fed stance and cap upside. Falling real yields have already helped gold recover toward the $4,700–$4,800 region, though volatility remains elevated ahead of key macro releases.
Central bank buying continues to provide a strong structural floor for gold. China has extended its buying streak for 18 consecutive months, while countries like India, Poland, and Uzbekistan continue diversifying reserves away from the dollar. This sustained sovereign demand helps absorb supply and supports long-term bullish sentiment, even during corrections. Institutional forecasts also remain positive, with major banks still projecting gold above $5,000 into late 2026, supported by expectations of eventual Fed easing and continued geopolitical instability.
Overall, gold continues to act as both a geopolitical hedge and inflation hedge in a complex macro environment shaped by oil volatility, Fed policy expectations, and global risk sentiment. Technically, price remains range-bound between strong support around $4,600–$4,700 and resistance near $4,750–$4,800.Eyes are now firmly on today’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), the key short-term catalyst. A weaker print would likely support lower yields, a softer dollar, and a breakout above $4,800, while a stronger reading could strengthen the dollar, lift yields, and trigger short-term downside pressure or consolidation in gold.
Technical Analysis
Gold, H4
Gold continues to recover strongly after defending the major support zone around 4520, where buyers stepped in twice to form a double-bottom structure. Price has now broken above the descending trendline resistance and reclaimed the 0.5 Fibonacci level near 4700, showing that bullish momentum is gradually returning. The recent rally toward 4745 also confirms higher lows and stronger buying pressure in the short term.
Momentum indicators are supporting the bullish outlook. RSI has pushed back above 60, reflecting strengthening bullish momentum without yet reaching extreme overbought territory. Meanwhile, MACD remains in positive territory, although the histogram is beginning to soften slightly, suggesting momentum is still bullish but may slow temporarily before the next move higher.
As long as gold holds above the 4700–4640 support area, buyers may continue targeting the next resistance around 4805, followed by 4825 and potentially 4890. A stronger breakout above these levels could open the path toward the psychological 4900 region. However, if price fails to hold above 4700, a pullback toward 4640 or even the key 4520 support zone could happen before the next bullish continuation.
Resistance Levels: 4745.00, 4825.00
Support Levels: 4640.00, 4520.00
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