
*US dollar strengthens sharply after stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls data
*Resilient labor market supports higher Treasury yields
*Fed officials signal concern over persistent inflation risks
*Hawkish policy expectations continue supporting the dollar outlook
The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, extended its gains aggressively after a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report reinforced expectations that interest rates may remain elevated for longer.
According to the U.S. Department of Labor, Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 172,000, significantly exceeding market expectations of 85,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%, suggesting that the U.S. labor market remains relatively stable despite tighter monetary conditions.
The stronger labor market data pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, as investors priced in the possibility that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain a restrictive policy stance for an extended period. A resilient jobs market gives policymakers more room to focus on inflation control without immediate concerns over a sharp slowdown in employment.
Adding to dollar strength, market participants are also expecting the Fed’s tone to become more hawkish after Kevin Warsh takes over as the new Federal Reserve Chair. Several Fed officials have recently highlighted concerns that inflation is taking too long to return to the 2% target.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that the labor market remains stable and warned that higher interest rates could be necessary later this year if inflation pressures persist. Similarly, New York Fed President John Williams noted that the job market remains healthy while upside risks to inflation have increased. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack also echoed a similar view, suggesting that the Fed may need to act soon if inflation trends fail to cool.
With stronger employment data supporting the hawkish tone from Fed officials, the overall trend for the U.S. dollar remains positive. As long as economic data stays resilient and inflation risks remain elevated, the greenback is likely to remain supported by higher Treasury yields and expectations of tighter monetary policy.
Technical Analysis

DXY, H4:
The dollar index is trading higher, currently testing the 100.10 resistance level, a key near-term breakout zone.
A confirmed breakout above 100.10 could extend gains toward the next resistance at 100.65, reinforcing the bullish trend.
However, momentum indicators are showing signs of exhaustion. The MACD is displaying diminishing bullish momentum, while the RSI at 71 has entered overbought territory, suggesting an increased risk of a near-term technical correction.
If bullish momentum begins to fade, the index may retrace toward the 99.50 support level, with further downside toward 98.90 if selling pressure intensifies.
Resistance Levels: 100.10, 100.65
Support Levels: 99.50, 98.90

Gold, H4:
Gold prices are trading lower after a breakdown below the 4,400.00 support level, confirming a bearish shift in short-term market structure.
Momentum remains weak, with the MACD strengthening to the downside and the RSI at 30 remaining in oversold territory, indicating persistent selling pressure despite increasingly stretched conditions.
If bearish momentum continues, gold could extend losses toward the next support at 4,270.00, with further downside toward 4,095.00 if selling pressure accelerates.
However, if selling pressure begins to ease, a technical rebound may occur, with prices likely to retest the 4,400.00 resistance level, followed by 4,495.00 if recovery strengthens.
Resistance Levels: 4400.00, 4495.00
Support Levels: 4270.00, 4095.00
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