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Market Insights > Daily Market Analysis New

Crude Oil Surges as Middle East Tensions Escalate

Published: 15 July 2026,08:43

Daily Market Analysis New

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Key Takeaways:

*Oil hits one-month highs as renewed US-Iran conflict raises fears of global supply disruptions.

*Strait of Hormuz remains in focus, with around 20% of global seaborne crude oil shipments at risk.

*US intensifies pressure on Iran through fresh airstrikes, a renewed naval blockade, and expanded sanctions on Iran’s oil sector.

Market Summary:

Crude oil extended its rally to one-month highs as escalating military conflict between the United States and Iran significantly increased concerns over global energy supply security. The United States carried out another round of strikes against Iranian military infrastructure, reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports, and expanded sanctions targeting Iran’s oil shipping network and financial operations. Iran responded with further attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, where approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil shipments pass, heightening fears of supply disruptions.

Brent crude climbed above US$85 per barrel while WTI approached US$80, supported by growing geopolitical risk premiums and expectations that any prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could tighten global oil supplies. Energy analysts warned that if current hostilities continue or regional energy infrastructure becomes a direct target, oil prices could potentially retest the US$100 level. Additional support also came from expectations of another decline in US crude inventories, signalling resilient underlying demand.

Although softer US inflation initially reduced expectations for immediate Federal Reserve tightening, the recent surge in oil prices has complicated the inflation outlook. Higher energy costs could feed into broader inflation pressures, encouraging the Fed to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. As a result, oil has become the primary macro driver influencing currencies, bond yields, gold, and global equity markets.

Market participants will continue monitoring military developments in the Middle East, shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, US inventory reports, and any further sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports. These factors are expected to remain the dominant catalysts for crude oil prices in the near term.

Technical Analysis

Crude Oil, H4:

Crude oil remains in a strong short-term uptrend, extending its rebound after breaking above the 76.20 resistance. The latest rally has pushed price toward the next resistance zone around 80.30, where bullish momentum is beginning to slow after several strong bullish candles.

Momentum indicators continue to favor the bulls, although they suggest the rally is becoming stretched. The RSI has climbed to around 70, approaching overbought territory while remaining above its moving average, indicating strong buying pressure but increasing the risk of short-term consolidation or profit-taking. Meanwhile, the MACD remains in a bullish configuration, with the MACD line above the signal line and the histogram still positive, confirming that upward momentum remains in place despite signs of gradual deceleration. Overall, the near-term outlook remains bullish.

Resistance Levels: 86.90. 95.80

Support Levels: 76.20, 66.70

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