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Published: 12 August 2026,09:45
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*USD remains range-bound ahead of US CPI, with weaker labor data limiting upside while rising oil prices keep inflation concerns elevated.
*Gold remains supported by safe-haven demand and softer Fed expectations, though a hotter CPI could trigger profit-taking.
*Oil prices continue to rise as US-Iran tensions and Hormuz disruptions threaten global supply, adding further inflationary pressure.
The US dollar and gold are being driven by a delicate balance between Fed policy expectations, inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainty. The DXY remains broadly range-bound around 99.8–99.9, while gold has climbed toward $4,390–$4,400 per ounce, recently reaching a roughly two-month high near $4,435. The weaker US labor market has reduced expectations for further Fed tightening after July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, compared with expectations for an increase of around 80,000, while previous months were revised lower. The softer labor data initially pushed Treasury yields and the dollar lower, supporting gold, although rising oil prices have since revived inflation concerns and provided some support for the dollar.
The immediate focus is now on US CPI, which could significantly reshape expectations for the Fed’s September meeting. Markets are currently close to evenly split, with roughly 52% probability of a September hold versus 48% for a 25bp hike. Consensus expects headline CPI to rise 0.2% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, while core CPI is forecast at 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. A softer-than-expected inflation reading would reinforce expectations for a less restrictive Fed, potentially weighing on the dollar and Treasury yields while supporting gold. Conversely, a hotter CPI could revive rate-hike expectations, strengthen the dollar and push yields higher, creating downside pressure on gold.
Geopolitical risks are adding another layer to both markets. Brent crude has climbed toward $90 and WTI above $83 as uncertainty over the US-Iran situation and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz raise concerns about energy supply disruptions. Iran has reiterated that the waterway will remain closed unless its conditions are met, while shipping traffic has fallen sharply and attacks around the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb routes have heightened supply concerns. Higher oil prices could keep inflation elevated and complicate the Fed’s policy path, potentially supporting the dollar, while the same geopolitical uncertainty continues to strengthen gold’s safe-haven appeal. Gold has also benefited from continued central-bank demand, with the People’s Bank of China reportedly adding to its reserves for the 21st consecutive month in July.
Overall, the fundamental outlook presents a tug-of-war between inflationary pressure and safe-haven demand. A hot CPI combined with continued oil strength could push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, potentially limiting gold’s upside despite geopolitical risks. In contrast, softer inflation would likely reduce Fed tightening expectations, weaken the dollar and yields, and provide further support for gold. For now, USD remains neutral to slightly bullish ahead of CPI, while gold retains a bullish bias, with the next major direction likely determined by the CPI result and the subsequent reaction in yields and the dollar.
Technical Analysis
GOLD, H4:
Gold remains firmly bullish after breaking out of its prolonged consolidation range and clearing the descending trendline. Price has continued to advance after breaking above the 4,135 resistance level and subsequently pushed through 4,285 and 4,365, reaching a recent high around 4,440 before pulling back slightly. The latest price action is holding above the 4,365 level, which has now become an important near-term support. A sustained break above the recent high and the 4,483.91 resistance area would further strengthen the bullish structure and open the door toward the next upside zone.
Momentum remains supportive but is showing early signs of cooling. RSI is currently around 66, remaining above the 50 level and indicating that buyers still have control, although the indicator has eased from recent highs and slipped below its moving average. Meanwhile, MACD has turned slightly bearish in the short term, with the MACD line falling below the signal line and the histogram moving into negative territory. This suggests that bullish momentum has weakened following the strong rally, increasing the possibility of a period of consolidation or a shallow pullback before the next directional move. Overall, Gold maintains a strong bullish bias despite the recent moderation in momentum.
Resistance Levels: 4375.00, 4520.00
Support Levels:4220.00, 4100.00
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