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Published: 24 August 2026,08:41
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*The Australian dollar remains supported by the RBA’s earlier tightening cycle, but momentum has eased after the central bank unanimously held rates at 4.35% in August.
*Tomorrow’s minutes will be the key catalyst. Any hawkish signals on inflation or future hikes could revive AUD strength, while a cautious tone would reinforce expectations of a prolonged pause.
*Beyond the minutes, commodity prices, Chinese data and U.S. dollar movements will influence the Aussie’s direction. For now, AUD is likely to remain range-bound until clearer policy signals emerge.
The Australian dollar has traded in a relatively stable manner in recent sessions, retaining support from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s earlier hawkish policy actions this year. Three consecutive rate increases in the first half of 2026, which lifted the cash rate to 4.35%, had previously underpinned the currency by reinforcing Australia’s yield advantage and signalling the Board’s determination to address elevated inflation. However, the RBA’s more recent conservative stance—most notably the unanimous decision to hold rates unchanged at its August meeting—has tempered the bullish momentum that earlier characterised the Aussie. Market participants have largely priced in a prolonged pause through the third quarter, reducing the currency’s near-term upside catalysts.
Attention now turns to the release of the August Monetary Policy Board meeting minutes, scheduled for tomorrow. These minutes are expected to generate heightened market volatility as traders scrutinise the language for any residual hawkish signals. While the decision itself was a clear hold, any indication that Board members remain concerned about persistent inflation risks or are prepared to tighten further if data disappoint could revive expectations of additional policy action later in the year. Such comments would likely provide a renewed boost to the Australian dollar by challenging the current market consensus of rate stability in Q3.
Conversely, a more balanced or cautious tone that emphasises the restrictive nature of existing policy and the need to assess incoming data could reinforce the pause narrative and limit the currency’s gains. Beyond the minutes, the Aussie’s path will continue to be influenced by commodity price trends, Chinese economic indicators, and broader movements in the U.S. dollar. In the near term, the minutes represent the most immediate catalyst, with the potential to either rekindle strength or prolong the current period of consolidation depending on the degree of hawkish messaging they contain.
Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair continues to trade within an uptrend trajectory after breaking above its previous resistance level at 0.7130 in the latest session. The breakout provides a bullish continuation signal and suggests that buying momentum remains strong.
Following the breakout, the 0.7130 level has now shifted from resistance into an important short-term support zone. Holding above this level would confirm that the breakout remains valid and that buyers continue to maintain control of the pair.
Should AUD/USD successfully defend 0.7130 during any potential technical retracement, the pair is expected to remain within its current bullish trajectory and could continue to advance toward higher levels.
Conversely, a decisive break back below 0.7130 would weaken the bullish breakout signal and could suggest that the latest move was a false breakout, increasing the risk of a short-term correction.
Resistance Levels: 0.7267, 0.7387
Support Levels: 0.7130, 0.6982
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