RBA Decision, U.S. Core PCE & Nonfarm Payrolls in Focus

The Week Ahead: Week of September 29, 2026 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview

After the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023 and signaled that further tightening could still be needed while inflation remains elevated, attention turns to a data-heavy week that will test the resilience of growth and the persistence of price pressures. The decision has already supported the U.S. dollar and kept short-term yields elevated, making the upcoming U.S. activity and inflation prints particularly important for assessing whether the Fed’s tightening cycle can continue.

Outside the United States, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest-rate decision on Tuesday is the clear central-bank highlight. Markets are pricing a roughly 90% probability of a 25 bp hike that would take the cash rate from 4.35% to 4.60%, with major Australian banks now aligned on a September move after higher oil prices, sticky underlying inflation and increasingly hawkish RBA commentary. A confirmed hike would reinforce the global theme of central banks still leaning against inflation risks even as growth shows signs of moderation.

China’s National Day holiday (October 1–2), together with Hong Kong’s observance and India’s Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti, will thin regional liquidity and may amplify moves in Asian currencies, equities and commodities. Against a backdrop of Brent crude remaining elevated above $100 amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, the combination of policy decisions, inflation data and labor-market readings will help markets judge the balance between persistent price pressures and any emerging slowdown in demand.

Key Events to Watch

Tuesday, September 29 – 07:30

Australia – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Sep)

Previous: 4.35% | Forecast: 4.60% | Actual: N/A

Markets and major banks overwhelmingly expect a 25 bp hike to 4.60%. Higher oil prices, resilient domestic data and recent RBA commentary have shifted the call forward from later in the year. A delivered increase would likely support the Australian dollar and reinforce the global tightening narrative; a surprise hold would trigger sharp AUD weakness and raise questions about the RBA’s inflation tolerance.

Tuesday, September 29 – 17:00

U.S. – CB Consumer Confidence (Sep)

Previous: 89.4 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The Conference Board measure will offer an early gauge of household sentiment following the Fed’s latest rate increase. A further decline could signal growing caution about higher borrowing costs, while a rebound would support the view of continued consumer resilience.

Tuesday, September 29 – 17:00

U.S. – JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)

Previous: 7.271M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Job openings remain a key indicator of labor-market tightness. A meaningful drop would ease wage-pressure concerns and soften rate-hike expectations; another elevated reading would keep the Fed’s dual-mandate tension in focus.

Wednesday, September 30 – 04:30

China – Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

Previous: 49.8 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The official manufacturing PMI will be watched for any signs of stabilization after recent soft readings. With Chinese markets heading into the National Day holiday, the data may set the tone for regional risk appetite into the longer break.

Wednesday, September 30 – 09:00

U.K. – GDP (QoQ) (Q2) & GDP (YoY) (Q2)

Previous: 0.6% / 0.9% | Forecast: 0.4% / 1.2% | Actual: N/A

Final second-quarter growth figures will confirm the pace of the U.K. recovery. A softer outcome would reinforce concerns about the impact of higher rates, while a firmer print would support sterling and reduce pressure for near-term policy easing.

Wednesday, September 30 – 15:15

U.S. – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)

Previous: 38K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The private-sector employment reading serves as a leading indicator for Friday’s official payrolls report. A stronger-than-expected gain would keep labor-market resilience in the spotlight ahead of the official data.

Wednesday, September 30 – 15:30

U.S. – Core PCE Price Index (YoY / MoM) (Aug)

Previous: 3.3% / 0.2% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge is the most important data release of the week for policy expectations. A firm reading would reinforce the case for further tightening and support the dollar and Treasury yields; a softer outcome could ease near-term hike pricing.

Wednesday, September 30 – 15:30

U.S. – GDP (QoQ) (Q2)

Previous: 2.1% | Forecast: 1.5% | Actual: N/A

The final second-quarter growth estimate will provide an updated view of the economy’s momentum heading into the second half of the year.

Wednesday, September 30 – 16:45

U.S. – Chicago PMI (Sep)

Previous: 47.1 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

A regional manufacturing survey that often foreshadows the national ISM reading. A move back above 50 would signal improving factory conditions; a deeper contraction would add to growth concerns.

Thursday, October 1 – All Day

China – National Day & Hong Kong – National Day

Holiday Chinese and Hong Kong markets are closed, reducing regional liquidity and potentially amplifying volatility in Asia-related assets.

Thursday, October 1 – 15:30

U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims

Previous: 197K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Weekly claims remain a timely gauge of labor-market health. A sustained rise would hint at emerging softness, while stable or lower readings would support the narrative of continued resilience.

Thursday, October 1 – 16:45 / 17:00

U.S. – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) & ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

Previous: 53.9 / 54.6 | Forecast: 57.0 / N/A | Actual: N/A

The manufacturing surveys will test whether the sector is expanding more firmly after the Fed’s recent hike. Stronger readings would reinforce economic resilience and keep rate expectations elevated; weaker numbers would raise questions about the cost of tighter policy.

Friday, October 2 – All Day

China – National Day & India – Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti

Continued holiday closures in China and India will keep Asian liquidity thinner into the weekend.

Friday, October 2 – 12:00

Eurozone – CPI (YoY) (Sep)

Previous: 3.2% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The preliminary euro-area inflation print will influence expectations for the ECB’s next moves and the euro’s relative performance against the dollar.

Friday, October 2 – 15:30

U.S. – Nonfarm Payrolls / Unemployment Rate / Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep)

Previous: 162K / 4.1% / 0.3% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The September employment report is the week’s final major U.S. data point. A solid payroll gain alongside a stable unemployment rate and firm wage growth would support the case for further Fed tightening and a stronger dollar. A clear slowdown in hiring or a rise in the jobless rate would increase concerns that higher rates are beginning to weigh on the labor market and could temper near-term policy expectations.

With the major September policy decisions largely behind and oil prices still elevated, the coming week’s mix of central-bank action, inflation data and labor-market readings will help determine whether higher borrowing costs are starting to slow demand or whether inflation pressures remain the dominant concern for markets.