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Published: 25 September 2026,10:13
Daily Market Analysis New
*Crude oil pulled back after a sharp rally as markets reassessed the possibility of a US–Iran truce.
*Fresh Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia recently revived fears of further disruption to regional energy infrastructure.
*Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline has resumed operations at reduced capacity, helping improve supply conditions.
*Discussions around reopening the Strait of Hormuz have reduced part of oil’s geopolitical risk premium.
Crude oil prices retreated after recently surging on renewed Middle East supply concerns, as improving diplomatic developments between the United States and Iran helped reduce fears of a prolonged disruption to regional energy flows.
Oil initially rallied after fresh Houthi missile attacks targeted areas in Saudi Arabia, including the strategically important Yanbu region. The renewed attacks raised concerns that energy infrastructure and export routes could face further disruption, pushing a stronger geopolitical risk premium back into crude prices.
However, market sentiment shifted after reports suggested the US and Iran were discussing a possible agreement that could eventually improve shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz. The prospect of reduced tensions encouraged traders to unwind part of the recent geopolitical premium, prompting oil prices to retreat from their highs.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia has partially restarted its East-West pipeline, helping improve confidence in near-term supply availability. The route allows Saudi crude to reach the Red Sea without relying entirely on the Strait of Hormuz, making its recovery particularly important for global supply conditions.
Alternative shipping arrangements near Oman have also helped keep Middle East oil flowing despite ongoing regional disruptions, further reducing concerns over an immediate physical shortage.
For now, crude oil remains caught between persistent geopolitical risks and improving supply conditions. Further progress in US–Iran negotiations or stronger Saudi export flows could pressure oil prices lower, while renewed attacks on energy infrastructure or shipping routes could quickly restore bullish momentum.
Crude oil is trading around 92.75 with price remaining below the 93.65 resistance after a recent rebound from the 88.95 area. The broader structure has weakened after breaking below the previous rising trendline, while the latest recovery has so far failed to establish a sustained move above 93.64. A break and close above 93.65 could strengthen the rebound toward 98.65, while failure to reclaim this level would keep the recent corrective structure intact. On the downside, 88.95 is the key support, followed by 87.50.
Momentum is showing signs of improvement but remains mixed. RSI has recovered to 46 from oversold territory and moved back above its signal average, suggesting selling pressure has eased, although the indicator remains below the neutral 50 level. MACD is also improving, with the MACD above the signal line and the histogram turning positive, indicating that downside momentum is losing strength. However, both MACD lines remain below zero, so the recovery has yet to confirm a broader bullish reversal.
Resistance Levels: 93.65, 98.65
Support Levels: 88.95, 80.35
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