U.S. PMIs, SNB & Durable Goods in Focus

The Week Ahead: Week of September 21, 2026 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview

After a major week of monetary-policy decisions, markets will turn toward economic growth and activity indicators next week. The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023, while signaling that further tightening could be needed as inflation remains elevated. The decision has already pushed the U.S. dollar higher and kept short-term Treasury yields elevated, making upcoming U.S. activity data particularly important for assessing whether the Fed’s tightening cycle can continue.

The preliminary September S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs on Wednesday will provide an early look at the health of the U.S. economy. With the Fed now placing greater emphasis on persistent inflation and economic resilience, stronger business activity could reinforce expectations for tighter policy, while weaker readings could raise concerns about the economic cost of higher rates. The market will also monitor initial jobless claims and new home sales on Thursday for further clues on employment and housing demand.

Outside the U.S., the Swiss National Bank’s interest-rate decision will be the main central-bank event. Meanwhile, several Asian markets will operate around holidays, including Japan, South Korea and China, which could result in thinner regional liquidity. South Korea and China will also observe extended holiday periods later in the week. The reduced liquidity comes against a backdrop of elevated geopolitical and energy-market risks, with Brent crude remaining above $100 and oil-related inflation continuing to complicate the outlook for major central banks.

With the major September policy decisions largely out of the way, attention may increasingly shift toward whether higher borrowing costs are beginning to slow demand. U.S. durable goods orders, housing data and business surveys will therefore be important for assessing the balance between persistent inflation and economic momentum.

Key Events to Watch

Monday, September 21 – All Day

Japan – Respect for the Aged Day

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Japan observes Respect for the Aged Day, resulting in a market holiday. Reduced Japanese participation could lead to thinner liquidity in JPY-related markets at the start of the week.

Tuesday, September 22 – All Day

Japan – Holiday

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Japanese markets remain closed for a holiday, further reducing regional liquidity and potentially affecting trading conditions across JPY and Asian assets.

Wednesday, September 23 – All Day

Japan – Autumn Equinox

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Japan observes the Autumn Equinox, keeping domestic markets closed and extending the holiday-thinned trading environment across the region.

Wednesday, September 23 – 16:45

U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) – Preliminary

Previous: 53.9 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The preliminary manufacturing PMI will provide an early indication of U.S. factory activity, new orders and business conditions. A stronger reading could reinforce expectations of resilient economic activity and support the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, while a weaker reading could increase concerns about slowing growth following the Fed’s latest rate hike.

Wednesday, September 23 – 16:45

U.S. S&P Global Services PMI (Sep) – Preliminary

Previous: 56.5 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The services PMI will offer a broader view of the U.S. economy, given the sector’s importance to domestic activity. A sustained expansion could support the case for maintaining tighter monetary policy, while a notable slowdown could strengthen expectations that higher rates will eventually weigh on consumer and business demand.

Thursday, September 24 – All Day

South Africa – Heritage Day

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

South Africa observes Heritage Day, resulting in a local market holiday and potentially thinner liquidity in ZAR-related trading.

Thursday, September 24 – All Day

South Korea – Chuseok Thanksgiving Day

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

South Korean markets remain closed for Chuseok, reducing regional participation and liquidity in KRW and other Asian markets.

Thursday, September 24 – 10:30

SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q3)

Previous: 0.00% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The Swiss National Bank’s policy decision will be closely watched for signals on its response to inflation, currency conditions and the broader global rate environment. Any unexpected shift in policy guidance could generate volatility in CHF, particularly against USD and EUR.

Thursday, September 24 – 15:30

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Initial jobless claims will provide another snapshot of U.S. labor-market conditions. A rise in claims could indicate increasing pressure on employment and reinforce expectations that tighter monetary policy may eventually slow the economy, while stable claims would support the view of continued labor-market resilience.

Thursday, September 24 – 17:00

U.S. New Home Sales (Aug)

Previous: 607K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

New home sales will offer insight into the health of the U.S. housing market, which remains particularly sensitive to borrowing costs. A stronger reading could signal resilience despite elevated rates, while weaker sales could highlight the impact of tighter financial conditions.

Friday, September 25 – All Day

China – Mid-Autumn Festival

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

China observes the Mid-Autumn Festival, resulting in a market holiday. Reduced Chinese participation could contribute to thinner liquidity across Asian markets and potentially affect regional currencies, equities and commodities.

Friday, September 25 – All Day

South Korea – Chuseok Thanksgiving Day

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

South Korean markets remain closed for Chuseok, extending the holiday-thinned trading environment in Asia.

Friday, September 25 – 15:30

U.S. Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug)

Previous: 1.1% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Durable goods orders will provide a key measure of business investment and demand for manufactured goods. A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations of economic resilience and keep pressure on Treasury yields, while a weaker result could increase concerns over slowing investment and growth.