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Published: 17 September 2026,08:37
Daily Market Analysis New
*The Bank of England is widely expected to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, with recent signs of moderating growth and labour-market conditions offsetting renewed inflation pressure from elevated energy prices.
*With the rate decision largely priced in, markets will focus on the MPC voting split and guidance. A narrow hold or stronger emphasis on inflation risks could support sterling.
*Updates on quantitative tightening and forward guidance will be closely watched for clues on the timing of the next rate move. Markets currently see November as a potential point for further policy adjustment.
The Bank of England is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision today, with markets widely expecting the Monetary Policy Committee to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75 percent. This consensus reflects recent UK economic data pointing to moderation in growth and labour market conditions, even as elevated energy prices have lifted headline inflation. Economists polled in recent surveys have overwhelmingly favoured a hold, while market pricing assigns only a limited probability to an immediate rate increase.
Although the decision itself is largely priced in, the composition of the MPC vote and the accompanying statement will be closely scrutinised for signals on the central bank’s policy bias. In July the Committee voted 6–3 to maintain rates, with three members preferring a hike. A similar or narrower majority for a hold, particularly if accompanied by language acknowledging upside inflation risks from energy costs, could be interpreted as relatively hawkish and provide support for the pound. Conversely, a more unified vote for no change or dovish commentary emphasising economic softness could weigh on sterling by reinforcing expectations of a prolonged pause.
Sterling’s near-term direction will therefore hinge less on the headline rate outcome and more on the perceived stance of the Committee. Traders will also monitor any updates on quantitative tightening and forward guidance for clues about the timing of the next potential move, currently seen by markets as more likely in November should energy-driven inflation pressures persist. Until the details of the decision and statement are fully absorbed, the pound is expected to remain sensitive to shifts in rate expectations relative to other major central banks.
The GBP/USD pair has broken below its daily uptrend channel after forming a double-top price pattern near the 1.3650 mark, providing an early signal of a potential bearish trend reversal. The breakdown suggests that the previous bullish structure has weakened, with selling pressure beginning to gain greater control over the pair.
Meanwhile, the RSI is now approaching the oversold zone, indicating that bearish momentum is strengthening, although the pair could face some short-term exhaustion if the indicator enters deeply into oversold territory. At the same time, the MACD is crossing below the zero line, signalling a shift from positive to negative momentum and further supporting the emerging bearish outlook.
Should GBP/USD sustain its move below the broken uptrend channel, the bearish reversal could gain further confirmation and expose the pair to additional downside pressure. Conversely, a recovery back above the former uptrend channel would weaken the bearish setup and suggest that the recent breakdown may require further confirmation.
Overall, GBP/USD is showing early signs of a bearish trend reversal following the break below its daily uptrend channel and the formation of a double-top near 1.3650. The RSI and MACD are also turning increasingly bearish, with sustained weakness below the broken channel likely to strengthen the downside outlook.
Resistance Levels: 1.3480, 1.3600
Support Levels: 1.3280, 1.3155
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