Fed, BoE & BoJ Decisions in Focus

The Week Ahead: Week of September 14, 2026 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview

Markets enter the week with monetary policy firmly in focus, as the Federal Reserve’s September 16 decision becomes the biggest catalyst for global FX, Treasury yields, equities and gold. The Fed is currently facing a divided outlook: some policymakers have argued that inflation is still too persistent to justify easing, while Governor Christopher Waller has indicated that a rate hike could be avoided if upcoming inflation data continues to cool. The latest Reuters economist poll shows a majority still expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%, although expectations for at least one hike later this year have increased.

The August U.S. CPI report released on Friday, September 11 will therefore be crucial in setting the tone ahead of the FOMC meeting. A hotter-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations for tighter policy, supporting the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields while weighing on equities and gold. Conversely, softer inflation could strengthen the case for a hold and potentially revive expectations for rate cuts later in the year. Markets are particularly sensitive to small changes in inflation data because the Fed remains divided over whether current policy is sufficiently restrictive.

Outside the U.S., the Bank of England and Bank of Japan will also announce their policy decisions on September 17 and 18 respectively. The BoE decision comes as elevated energy prices and persistent inflation complicate the outlook for UK monetary policy, while the BoJ remains closely watched as markets assess the possibility of further policy normalization. At the same time, the recent surge in oil prices above $100 a barrel amid escalating U.S.–Iran tensions continue to create an inflationary backdrop for major central banks, potentially limiting their ability to ease policy.

The week will also feature U.S. retail sales, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and eurozone inflation, providing additional clues on consumer demand, economic momentum and global price pressures. With oil prices elevated and bond yields sensitive to inflation expectations, markets could remain highly reactive to incoming data and central-bank guidance.

Key Events to Watch

Monday, September 14 – All Day

India – Ganesh Chaturthi

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

India observes Ganesh Chaturthi, resulting in a local market holiday. While the direct impact on major global markets should be limited, thinner regional liquidity may contribute to slightly reduced trading activity in Asian markets.

Wednesday, September 16 – 09:00

U.K. CPI (YoY) (Aug)

Previous: 2.9% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The U.K. inflation reading will provide an important signal ahead of the Bank of England’s policy decision the following day. A stronger-than-expected CPI reading could reinforce expectations for a more cautious BoE stance and support the pound, while softer inflation would strengthen the case for a less restrictive policy outlook.

Wednesday, September 16 – 15:30

U.S. Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)

Previous: -0.3% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Core retail sales will offer a clearer view of underlying U.S. consumer demand by excluding more volatile components. Strong spending could signal continued economic resilience and support the dollar and Treasury yields, while a weak reading could reinforce concerns over slowing growth.

Wednesday, September 16 – 15:30

U.S. Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)

Previous: -0.6% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Headline retail sales will provide another key indication of consumer momentum. A rebound from the previous decline could strengthen expectations that the U.S. economy remains resilient, while another contraction could increase pressure on the Fed to prioritize growth alongside inflation.

Wednesday, September 16 – 21:00

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

Previous: 3.75% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The Fed’s rate decision will be the week’s main event. Markets are closely divided over whether policymakers will maintain rates or deliver another hike, with the outcome heavily dependent on the August inflation data released just days earlier. A hawkish decision would likely support the dollar and Treasury yields, while a hold accompanied by a dovish outlook could weigh on the dollar and support risk assets and gold.

Wednesday, September 16 – 21:00

FOMC Economic Projections

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The updated economic projections will be closely watched for changes to the Fed’s growth, inflation, unemployment and interest-rate outlook. Any shift in the projected policy path could trigger significant moves in the dollar, Treasury yields and equity markets.

Wednesday, September 16 – 21:00

FOMC Statement

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The policy statement will provide further insight into how Fed officials assess inflation, employment and the economic outlook. Particular attention will be paid to language surrounding future rate adjustments and the risks posed by elevated energy prices and inflation.

Wednesday, September 16 – 21:30

FOMC Press Conference

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The press conference will be crucial for interpreting the Fed’s reaction function. Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments could generate substantial volatility if his guidance differs from market expectations, particularly given the current disagreement among policymakers over whether inflation has eased sufficiently.

Thursday, September 17 – 12:00

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Aug)

Previous: 2.9% | Forecast: 3.3% | Actual: N/A

Eurozone inflation is expected to rise sharply to 3.3%, largely reflecting higher energy prices. A stronger reading would reinforce expectations that the ECB needs to maintain a restrictive stance, potentially supporting the euro while adding pressure to European bonds and equities.

Thursday, September 17 – 14:00

BoE Interest Rate Decision (Sep)

Previous: 3.75% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The Bank of England’s decision will be closely watched as the UK balances persistent inflation against weaker economic momentum. A hawkish outcome could support GBP and push gilt yields higher, while a more cautious stance could weigh on sterling.

Thursday, September 17 – 15:30

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep)

Previous: 47.4 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The regional manufacturing survey will provide an early indication of U.S. factory activity and business sentiment. A stronger reading could reinforce expectations of resilient economic growth, while a deterioration could add to concerns over slowing activity.

Thursday, September 17 – 15:30

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Initial jobless claims will provide another update on U.S. labor-market conditions following the Fed’s policy decision. A sustained rise in claims could strengthen expectations for eventual monetary easing, while lower claims would support the view that the labor market remains relatively resilient.

Friday, September 18 – 06:00

BoJ Interest Rate Decision

Previous: 1.00% | Forecast: 1.25% | Actual: N/A

The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its policy rate to 1.25%, making this one of the week’s key events for the yen. A hike accompanied by hawkish guidance could strengthen JPY and increase Japanese bond yields, while a cautious outlook could limit the yen’s gains. The decision will also be important for global markets given the potential impact of Japanese capital flows and carry trades.